Construction and Validation of Two Novel Nomograms for Predicting the Overall Survival and Cancer-Specific Survival of NSCLC Patients with Bone Metastasis.

backgroundBone metastasis (BM) is the most common site of metastasis in non-small cell lung carcinoma (NSCLC). We aimed to construct and validate 2 novel nomograms predicting the 3-, 6-, and 12-months overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS).

methodsThe clinical data of 7480 patients between 2010 and 2016 were enrolled from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (SEER). The patients were allocated randomly to training and validation cohorts in a 7:3 ratio. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to identify prognostic risk factors and establish 2 nomograms. The prediction accuracy of nomograms was assessed by C-index, the area under the ROC curve (AUC), and calibration curves.

resultsA total of 244998 NSCLC patients were identified between 2010 and 2016, with 7480 found with BM, accounting for 3.1%. Overall, 7480 patients were enrolled in the OS nomogram construction and were randomized to the training set (n = 5236) and the validation set (n = 2244). Age, sex, race, marital status, histology, grade, primary site, T stage, N stage, liver metastasis, surgery, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy were found to correlate with OS. A total of 7422 samples were included in the CSS nomogram construction, randomly grouped into training set (n = 5195) and the validation set (n = 2227). Age, sex, race, histology, grade, primary site, T stage, N stage, brain metastasis, liver metastasis, surgery, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy were associated with CSS. Two nomograms were conducted to predict the 3-, 6-, and 12-months OS and CSS. The ROC curves and exhibited good performance for predicting OS and CSS.

conclusionWe established and validated 2 high-performance nomograms to assist clinical doctors in making personalized treatment decisions.