Modeling and forecasting the total number of cases and deaths due to pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic has appeared as the predominant disease of the 21st century at the end of 2019 and was a drastic start with thousands of casualties and the COVID-19 victims in 2020. Due to the drastic effect, COVID-19 scientists are trying to work on pandemic diseases and Governments are interested in the development of methodologies that will minimize the losses and speed up the process of cure by providing vaccines and treatment for such pandemics. The development of a new vaccine for any pandemic requires long in vitro and in vivo trials to use. Thus the strategies require understanding how the pandemic is spreading in terms of affected cases and casualties occurring from this disease, here we developed a forecasting model that can predict the no of cases and deaths due to pandemic and that can help the researcher, government, and other stakeholders to devise their strategies so that the damages can be minimized. This model can also be used for the judicial distribution of resources as it provides the estimates of the number of casualties and number of deaths with high accuracy, Government and policymakers on the basis of forecasted value can plan in a better way. The model efficiency is discussed on the basis of the available dataset of John Hopkins University repository in the period when the disease was first reported in the six countries till the mid of May 2020, the model was developed on the basis of this data, and then it is tested by forecasting the no of deaths and cases for next 7 days, where the proposed strategy provided excellent forecasting. The forecast models are developed for six countries including Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, Iran, Italy, and China using polynomial regression of degrees 3-5. But the models are analyzed up to the 6th-degree and the suitable models are selected based on higher adjusted R-square (R