ArticleBMJ open2021
Hypertension incidence among middle-aged and older adults: findings from a 5-year prospective study in rural South Africa, 2010-2015.
Article in BMJ open, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed, 9 citations in OpenAlex.
- Hypertension Incidence and Its Risk Factors in a Longitudinal Cohort of Middle-Aged Men and Women Living in Urban South Africa.Journal of clinical hypertension (Greenwich, Conn.) · 2026Article
- Eight-year prevalence and incidence of obesity, high blood glucose and high blood pressure in five African-origin populations: data from the Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study.BMJ public health · 2026Article
- Prevalence and Determinants of Abnormal Ambulatory Blood Pressure and Circadian Patterns Among Adults in Ido Ekiti, Nigeria: A Community-Based Study.International journal of hypertension · 2026Article
- Blood pressure change and hypertension incidence among Ghanaians living in rural Ghana, urban Ghana and The Netherlands: a prospective cohort study.EClinicalMedicine · 2025Article
- The effects of HIV and systolic blood pressure on mortality risk in rural South Africa, 2010-2019: a data note.BMC research notes · 2023Article
- Significant Improvement in Blood Pressure Levels Among Older Adults With Hypertension in Rural South Africa.Hypertension (Dallas, Tex. : 1979) · 2023Article
- Developing and Validating Risk Algorithm for Hypertension in South Africa: Results from a Nationally Representative Cohort (2008-2017).High blood pressure & cardiovascular prevention : the official journal of the Italian Society of Hypertension · 2022Article
- Cardiovascular disease risk in women living with HIV.Current opinion in HIV and AIDS · 2022Review
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Authors and funding
7 authors at 4 institutions in 5 countries.
Funding
Abstract
objectivesThere is a scarcity of longitudinal cohort studies in sub-Saharan Africa to understand the epidemiology of cardiovascular disease as a basis for intervention. We estimated incident hypertension and associated sociodemographic, health and behavioural risk factors in a population aged 40 years and older over a 5-year period.
designWe assessed the association between incident hypertension and sociodemographic, health and behavioural factors using Poisson regression. We adjusted for non-response in 2015 using inverse probability sampling weights from a logistic regression including sex and age at baseline.
settingRural South Africa.
participantsWe used a population-based cohort of normotensive adults in 2010 who were aged 40 years and older at retest in 2015.
resultsOf 676 individuals completing baseline and 5-year follow-up, there were 193 incident cases of hypertension. The overall hypertension incidence rate was 8.374/100 person-years. In multivariable analyses, those who became hypertensive were more likely to be older, have a high waist circumference (incidence rate ratio (IRR): 1.557, 95% CI: 1.074 to 2.259) and be employed (IRR: 1.579, 95% CI: 1.071 to 2.329) at baseline. Being HIV positive and not on antiretroviral therapy at baseline was associated with lower risk of incident hypertension.
conclusionsOver a 5-year period, 29% of respondents developed hypertension. Given the high burden of hypertension in South Africa, continued longitudinal follow-up is needed to understand the complex interplay of non-communicable and infectious diseases and their underlying and modifiable risk factors to inform public health prevention strategies and programmes.
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