ArticleBMC infectious diseases2021
Identification of bio-climatic determinants and potential risk areas for Kyasanur forest disease in Southern India using MaxEnt modelling approach.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed.
- Epidemiology of Kyasanur forest disease in India, 2000-2025: a systematic review and meta-analysis.The Lancet regional health. Southeast Asia · 2026Article
- Climate change impact on disease emergence and antimicrobial resistance: A perspective on transmission and detection.iScience · 2026Review
- Predicting the Potential Distribution of the Invasive PlantEcology and evolution · 2026Article
- Article
- Hard Ticks as Vectors: The Emerging Threat of Tick-Borne Diseases in India.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Review
- Kyasanur Forest Disease: A Comprehensive Review.Cureus · 2024Review
- Impact of climate change on potential distribution of Dickeya zeae causal agent of stalk rot of maize in Sialkot district Pakistan.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Distribution of sika deer (Cervus nippon) and the bioclimatic impact on their habitats in South Korea.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Predicting Kyasanur forest disease in resource-limited settings using event-based surveillance and transfer learning.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Using ecological niche modeling to predict the potential distribution of scrub typhus in Fujian Province, China.Parasites & vectors · 2023Article
- Climate Change Influences the Spread of African Swine Fever Virus.Veterinary sciences · 2022Article
- Identification, Distribution, and Habitat Suitability Models of Ixodid Tick Species in Cattle in Eastern Bhutan.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2021Article
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Abstract
backgroundKyasanur forest disease (KFD), known as monkey fever, was for the first time reported in 1957 from the Shivamogga district of Karnataka. But since 2011, it has been spreading to the neighbouring state of Kerala, Goa, Maharashtra, and Tamil Nadu. The disease is transmitted to humans, monkeys and by the infected bite of ticks Haemaphysalis spinigera. It is known that deforestation and ecological changes are the main reasons for KFD emergence, but the bio-climatic understanding and emerging pathways remain unknown.
methodsThe present study aims to understand the bio-climatic determinants of distribution of tick vector of KFD in southern India using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model. The analysis was done using 34 locations of Haemaphysalis spinigera occurrence and nineteen bio-climatic variables from WorldClim. Climatic variables contribution was assessed using the Jackknife test and mean AUC 0.859, indicating the model performs with very high accuracy.
resultsMost influential variables affecting the spatial distribution of Haemaphysalis spinigera were the average temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10, contributed 32.5%), average diurnal temperature range (bio2, contributed 21%), precipitation of wettest period (bio13, contributed 17.6%), and annual precipitation (bio12, contributed 11.1%). The highest probability of Haemaphysalis spinigera presence was found when the mean warmest quarter temperature ranged between 25.4 and 30 °C. The risk of availability of the tick increased noticeably when the mean diurnal temperature ranged between 8 and 10 °C. The tick also preferred habitat having an annual mean temperature (bio1) between 23 and 26.2 °C, mean temperature of the driest quarter (bio9) between 20 and 28 °C, and mean temperature of the wettest quarter (bio8) between 22.5 and 25 °C.
conclusionsThe results have established the relationship between bioclimatic variables and KFD tick distribution and mapped the potential areas for KFD in adjacent areas wherein surveillance for the disease is warranted for early preparedness before the occurrence of outbreaks etc. The modelling approach helps link bio-climatic variables with the present and predicted distribution of Haemaphysalis spinigera tick.
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