Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34871620›Full record

ArticleKidney international2022

Prediction models of treatment response in lupus nephritis.

Isabelle Ayoub, Bethany J Wolf, Linyu Geng, Huijuan Song, Aastha Khatiwada, Betty P Tsao, Jim C Oates, Brad H Rovin

Open access · greenAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Kidney international, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 26 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
26citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
5.1field-weighted citation impact, top 4% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

26 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 44 citations in OpenAlex.

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  8. An interpretable machine learning model for preoperative prediction of renal mass malignancy.Clinical & translational oncology : official publication of the Federation of Spanish Oncology Societies and of the National Cancer Institute of Mexico · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.

Isabelle AyoubDivision of Nephrology, Department of Medicine, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, USA.
Bethany J WolfDepartment of Public Health Sciences, Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston, South Carolina, USA.
Linyu GengDivision of Rheumatology and Immunology, Department of Medicine, Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston, South Carolina, USA.
Huijuan SongDivision of Nephrology, Department of Medicine, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, USA.
Aastha KhatiwadaDivision of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, National Jewish Health, Denver, Colorado, USA.
Betty P TsaoDivision of Rheumatology and Immunology, Department of Medicine, Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston, South Carolina, USA.
Jim C OatesDivision of Rheumatology and Immunology, Department of Medicine, Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston, South Carolina, USA. Electronic address: oatesjc@musc.edu.
Brad H RovinDivision of Nephrology, Department of Medicine, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, USA. Electronic address: rovin.1@osu.edu.
Medical University of South Carolina · USThe Ohio State University · USNational Jewish Health · US

Funding

Institute for Clinical and Translational Research (UL1)UL1RR025005 · NCRR · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI FORD, DANIEL ERNEST · 2007 to 2011
$75.8M
South Carolina Clinical & Translational Research Institute (SCTR)UL1TR001450 · NCATS · MEDICAL UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA · PI BRADY, KATHLEEN T., FLUME, PATRICK A · 2015 to 2024
$41.1M
The Interplay of Sociodemographic and Genetic Factors in SLE Health DisparitiesP60AR053308 · NIAMS · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI KATZ, PATRICIA P · 2006 to 2016
$11.8M
SOUTH CAROLINA CLINICAL & TRANSLATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE (SCTR)UL1RR029882 · NCRR · MEDICAL UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA · PI BRADY, KATHLEEN T. · 2009 to 2011
$10.1M
South Carolina Clinical & Translational Research Institute (SCTR)UL1TR000062 · NCATS · MEDICAL UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA · PI BRADY, KATHLEEN T. · 2012 to 2014
$9.4M
Resource CoreP30AR072582 · NIAMS · MEDICAL UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA · PI JAMES C OATES · 2017 to 2026
$8.5M
Patient Resource CoreP60AR062755 · NIAMS · MEDICAL UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA · PI SILVER, RICHARD M. · 2012 to 2016
$5.8M
Training Grant in Inflammatory and Fibrosing DiseasesT32AR050958 · NIAMS · MEDICAL UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA · PI DIANE L KAMEN · 2005 to 2026
$4.2M
Role of reactive intermediates in lupus nephritisR01AR045476 · NIAMS · MEDICAL UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA · PI GILKESON, GARY S, OATES, JAMES C · 1999 to 2012
$3.5M
Predictive Biomarkers for disease activity and organ damage in patients with lupusR01AR071947 · NIAMS · MEDICAL UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA · PI OATES, JAMES C, ROVIN, BRAD H · 2018 to 2022
$3.2M
Role of nitric oxide and eicosanoids in lupus nepthritisK08AR002193 · NIAMS · MEDICAL UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA · PI OATES, JAMES C · 2001 to 2005
$635k
Urine protein markers of disease in lupus nephritisR21AR051719 · NIAMS · MEDICAL UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA · PI OATES, JAMES C · 2004 to 2005
$126k
CSRD VA I01 CX000218NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR000062NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR001450NCRR NIH HHS UL1 RR025005NCRR NIH HHS UL1 RR029882NIAMS NIH HHS K08 AR002193NIAMS NIH HHS P30 AR072582NIAMS NIH HHS P60 AR053308NIAMS NIH HHS P60 AR062755NIAMS NIH HHS R01 AR045476NIAMS NIH HHS R01 AR071947NIAMS NIH HHS R21 AR051719NIAMS NIH HHS T32 AR050958
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

In order to develop prediction models of one-year treatment response in lupus nephritis, an approach using machine learning to combine traditional clinical data and novel urine biomarkers was undertaken. Contemporary lupus nephritis biomarkers were identified through an unbiased PubMed search. Thirteen novel urine proteins contributed to the top 50% of ranked biomarkers and were selected for measurement at the time of lupus nephritis flare. These novel markers along with traditional clinical data were incorporated into a variety of machine learning algorithms to develop prediction models of one-year proteinuria and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Models were trained on 246 individuals from four different sub-cohorts and validated on an independent cohort of 30 patients with lupus nephritis. Seven models were considered for each outcome. Three-quarters of these models demonstrated good predictive value with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve over 0.7. Overall, prediction performance was the best for models of eGFR response to treatment. Furthermore, the best performing models contained both traditional clinical data and novel urine biomarkers, including cytokines, chemokines, and markers of kidney damage. Thus, our study provides further evidence that a machine learning approach can predict lupus nephritis outcomes at one year using a set of traditional and novel biomarkers. However, further validation of the utility of machine learning as a clinical decision aid to improve outcomes will be necessary before it can be routinely used in clinical practice to guide therapy.

Indexed as

Lupus Erythematosus, SystemicLupus NephritisBiomarkersHumansProteinuriaROC CurveSymptom Flare UpBiomarkerslupus nephritisoutcomes in lupus nephritisprediction models in lupus nephritisurine biomarkers

Identifiers

PMID34871620
PMCPMC8792241
OpenAlexW3216467585

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
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Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.