Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34868624›Full record

ArticleDigital health

Predicting therapy outcome in a digital mental health intervention for depression and anxiety: A machine learning approach.

Silvan Hornstein, Valerie Forman-Hoffman, Albert Nazander, Kristian Ranta, Kevin Hilbert

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Digital health. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 32 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
32citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
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1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

32 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Silvan HornsteinMeru Health Inc, Palo Alto, CA, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0398-7096
Valerie Forman-HoffmanMeru Health Inc, Palo Alto, CA, USA.
Albert NazanderMeru Health Inc, Palo Alto, CA, USA.
Kristian RantaMeru Health Inc, Palo Alto, CA, USA.
Kevin HilbertDepartment of Psychology, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivePredicting the outcomes of individual participants for treatment interventions appears central to making mental healthcare more tailored and effective. However, little work has been done to investigate the performance of machine learning-based predictions within digital mental health interventions. Therefore, this study evaluates the performance of machine learning in predicting treatment response in a digital mental health intervention designed for treating depression and anxiety.

methodsSeveral algorithms were trained based on the data of 970 participants to predict a significant reduction in depression and anxiety symptoms using clinical and sociodemographic variables. As a random forest classifier performed best over cross-validation, it was used to predict the outcomes of 279 new participants.

resultsThe random forest achieved an accuracy of 0.71 for the test set (base rate: 0.67, area under curve (AUC): 0.60,

conclusionsThis study provides evidence that social-demographic and clinical variables can be used for machine learning to predict therapy outcomes within the context of a therapist-supported digital mental health intervention. Despite the overall moderate performance, this appears promising as these predictions can potentially improve the outcomes of non-responders by monitoring their progress or by offering alternative or additional treatment.

Indexed as

depressionDigital mental healthgeneral anxiety disordermachine learningoutcome predictionprecision psychiatry

Identifiers

PMID34868624
PMCPMC8637697

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.