Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34858596›Full record

ArticleEvolution, medicine, and public health2021

Twinning during the pandemic: Evidence of selection

Ralph Catalano, Tim Bruckner, Joan A Casey, Alison Gemmill, Claire Margerison, Terry Hartig

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Evolution, medicine, and public health, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
12citing papers in PubMed
3.0field-weighted citation impact, top 8% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

12 citing papers in PubMed, 23 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. The Secondary Sex Ratio and Male Mortality at Pre-Reproductive Ages: A Test of Selection In Utero.American journal of human biology : the official journal of the Human Biology Council · 2025
    Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Selection in utero against male twins in the United States early in the COVID-19 pandemic.American journal of human biology : the official journal of the Human Biology Council · 2023
    Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. A novel indicator of selectionEvolution, medicine, and public health · 2023
    Article
  12. A preliminary analysis of the secondary sex ratio decline after the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan.American journal of human biology : the official journal of the Human Biology Council · 2022
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors at 6 institutions in 2 countries.

Ralph CatalanoSchool of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7240-415X
Tim BrucknerProgram in Public Health and Center for Population, Inequality and Policy, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA, USA.
Joan A CaseyEnvironmental Health Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
Alison GemmillJohns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5879-9730
Claire MargerisonDepartment of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0692-2252
Terry HartigInstitute for Housing and Urban Research, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.
Berkeley Public Health Division · USColumbia University · USJohns Hopkins University · USMichigan State University · USUniversity of California, Irvine · USUppsala University · SE

Funding

True Metal fac coreP30ES009089 · NIEHS · COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES · PI MATTHEW S PERZANOWSKI · 1998 to 2026
$44.7M
NIEHS NIH HHS P30 ES009089
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND

objectivesThe suspicion that a population stressor as profound as the COVID-19 pandemic would increase preterm birth among cohorts in gestation at its outset has not been supported by data collected in 2020. An evolutionary perspective on this circumstance suggests that natural selection METHODOLOGY: We apply Box-Jenkins methods to 50 pre-pandemic months to estimate counterfactuals for the nine birth cohorts in gestation in March 2020 when the first deaths attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infection occurred in Norway. We use Alwan and Roberts outlier detection methods to discover any sequence of outlying values in the odds of a live-born twin among male births in exposed birth cohorts.

resultsWe find a downward level shift of 27% in the monthly odds of a twin among male births beginning in May and persisting through the remainder of 2020. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Consistent with evolutionary theory and selection LAY SUMMARY: Our finding of fewer than expected male twin births during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic provides more evidence that evolution continues to affect the characteristics and health of contemporary populations.

Indexed as

COVID-19selection in uterotwins

Identifiers

PMID34858596
PMCPMC8634460
OpenAlexW3206522121

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.