ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2021
In vivo kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 infection and its relationship with a person's infectiousness.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 106 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
106 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Predicting the presence of infectious virus from PCR data: A meta-analysis of SARS-CoV-2 in non-human primates.PLoS pathogens · 2024Pooled it
- Antiviral effect of Evusheld in COVID-19 hospitalized patients infected with pre-Omicron or Omicron variants: a modelling analysis of the randomized DisCoVeRy trial.The Journal of antimicrobial chemotherapy · 2024Trial
- Association between SARS-CoV-2 viral kinetics and clinical score evolution in hospitalized patients.CPT: pharmacometrics & systems pharmacology · 2023Trial
- Statistical Challenges When Analyzing SARS-CoV-2 RNA Measurements Below the Assay Limit of Quantification in COVID-19 Clinical Trials.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2023Trial
- Variant-Specific Viral Kinetics in Acute COVID-19.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2023Trial
- Effect of remdesivir on viral dynamics in COVID-19 hospitalized patients: a modelling analysis of the randomized, controlled, open-label DisCoVeRy trial.The Journal of antimicrobial chemotherapy · 2022Trial
- Transmission of mutated SARS-CoV-2 variants is favored by relatively prolonged infections due to delayed immunity.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026Article
- Performance evaluation of the BioFire respiratory panel 2.1 plus and exploratory analysis of Ct values for respiratory pathogen quantification.European journal of clinical microbiology & infectious diseases : official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology · 2026Article
- Disentangling the drivers of heterogeneity in SARS-CoV-2 transmission from data on viral load and daily contact rates.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Clinical trial simulation of antiviral drugs.Journal of virology · 2026Review
- Article
- Identifying the optimal rapid antigen test for screening and determining the end of isolation: A modeling study.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Ordinary differential equation models of SARS-CoV-2 replication dynamics and antiviral drug efficacies.Npj viruses · 2026Review
- Understanding pandemics through molecular gas dynamics.PNAS nexus · 2025Article
- Random time-shift approximation enables hierarchical Bayesian inference of mechanistic within-host viral dynamics models on large datasets.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- From Bird Viremia to Bird Surveillance: Identifiability in a Multiscale Vector-Borne Model of Usutu Virus Infection.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025Article
- Modeling the effectiveness of RT-PCR, RT-LAMP, and antigen testing strategies for COVID-19 control.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Relating In Vivo Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection Kinetics to Host Infectiousness in Different Age Groups.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2025Article
- A fundamental limit to the effectiveness of traveller screening with molecular tests.Epidemiology and infection · 2025Article
- Viral Dynamic Models During COVID-19: Are We Ready for the Next Pandemic?CPT: pharmacometrics & systems pharmacology · 2025Review
46 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The within-host viral kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 infection and how they relate to a person's infectiousness are not well understood. This limits our ability to quantify the impact of interventions on viral transmission. Here, we develop viral dynamic models of SARS-CoV-2 infection and fit them to data to estimate key within-host parameters such as the infected cell half-life and the within-host reproductive number. We then develop a model linking viral load (VL) to infectiousness and show a person's infectiousness increases sublinearly with VL and that the logarithm of the VL in the upper respiratory tract is a better surrogate of infectiousness than the VL itself. Using data on VL and the predicted infectiousness, we further incorporated data on antigen and RT-PCR tests and compared their usefulness in detecting infection and preventing transmission. We found that RT-PCR tests perform better than antigen tests assuming equal testing frequency; however, more frequent antigen testing may perform equally well with RT-PCR tests at a lower cost but with many more false-negative tests. Overall, our models provide a quantitative framework for inferring the impact of therapeutics and vaccines that lower VL on the infectiousness of individuals and for evaluating rapid testing strategies.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.