ArticleBMJ open respiratory research2021
Ten-year prediction model for post-bronchodilator airflow obstruction and early detection of COPD: development and validation in two middle-aged population-based cohorts.
Article in BMJ open respiratory research, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 11 citations in OpenAlex.
- Undiagnosed and 'overdiagnosed' COPD using postbronchodilator spirometry in primary healthcare settings: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMJ open respiratory research · 2023Pooled it
- Article
- Towards early detection and disease interception of COPD across the lifespan.European respiratory review : an official journal of the European Respiratory Society · 2025Review
- Associations between life-course FEVThe Lancet. Respiratory medicine · 2025Article
- Reply to Divo and Celli: To Our Knowledge, You Are Not the First….American journal of respiratory and critical care medicine · 2024Article
- Potential pre-COPD indicators in association with COPD development and COPD prediction models in Chinese: a prospective cohort study.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2024Article
- Asthma Hospital Admission and Readmission Spikes, Advancing Accurate Classification to Advance Understanding of Causes.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- Development and validation of immune-based biomarkers and deep learning models for Alzheimer's disease.Frontiers in genetics · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
25 authors at 10 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundClassifying individuals at high chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)-risk creates opportunities for early COPD detection and active intervention.
objectiveTo develop and validate a statistical model to predict 10-year probabilities of COPD defined by post-bronchodilator airflow obstruction (post-BD-AO; forced expiratory volume in 1 s/forced vital capacity<5th percentile).
settingGeneral Caucasian populations from Australia and Europe, 10 and 27 centres, respectively.
participantsFor the development cohort, questionnaire data on respiratory symptoms, smoking, asthma, occupation and participant sex were from the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (TAHS) participants at age 41-45 years (n=5729) who did not have self-reported COPD/emphysema at baseline but had post-BD spirometry and smoking status at age 51-55 years (n=2407). The validation cohort comprised participants from the European Community Respiratory Health Survey (ECRHS) II and III (n=5970), restricted to those of age 40-49 and 50-59 with complete questionnaire and spirometry/smoking data, respectively (n=1407). STATISTICAL
methodRisk-prediction models were developed using randomForest then externally validated.
resultsArea under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC
conclusionThis novel and validated risk-prediction model could identify adults aged in their 40s at high 10-year COPD-risk in the general population with potential to facilitate active monitoring/intervention in predicted 'COPD cases' at a much earlier age.
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