Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34857521›Full record

ArticleBMJ global health2021

Stark choices: exploring health sector costs of policy responses to COVID-19 in low-income and middle-income countries.

Sergio Torres-Rueda, Sedona Sweeney, Fiammetta Bozzani, Nichola R Naylor, Tim Baker, Carl Pearson, Rosalind Eggo, Simon R Procter, Nicholas Davies, Matthew Quaife and 11 more

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ global health, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
20citing papers in PubMed
3.5field-weighted citation impact, top 6% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

20 citing papers in PubMed, 45 citations in OpenAlex.

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  2. Optimizing TB policies using the global TB portfolio model: an economic analysis.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025
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  18. COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptance and Its Determinants among Myanmar Migrant Workers in Southern Thailand.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022
    Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

21 authors at 5 institutions in 4 countries.

Sergio Torres-RuedaDepartment of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK sergio.torresrueda@lshtm.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0002-6335-6392
Sedona SweeneyDepartment of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-4233-9080
Fiammetta BozzaniDepartment of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-9518-6885
Nichola R NaylorDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Tim BakerDepartment of Clinical Research, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Carl PearsonDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-0701-7860
Rosalind EggoDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Simon R ProcterDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Nicholas DaviesDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Matthew QuaifeDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Nichola KitsonDepartment of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Marcus R Keogh-BrownDepartment of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Henning Tarp JensenDepartment of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Nuru SaadiDepartment of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Mishal KhanDepartment of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Maryam HudaDepartment of Community Health Sciences, The Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan.
Angela KairuHealth Economics Research Unit (HERU), KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Nairobi, Kenya.
Raza ZaidiHealth Planning, System Strengthening and Information Analysis Unit, Pakistan Ministry of National Health Services Regulations and Coordination, Islamabad, Pakistan.
Edwine BarasaHealth Economics Research Unit (HERU), KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Nairobi, Kenya.ORCID 0000-0001-5793-7177
Mark JitDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Anna VassallDepartment of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine · GBAga Khan University · PKKenya Medical Research Institute · KEIfakara Health Institute · TZMinistry of National Health Services Regulation and Coordination · PK

Funding

Wellcome Trust
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesCOVID-19 has altered health sector capacity in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Cost data to inform evidence-based priority setting are urgently needed. Consequently, in this paper, we calculate the full economic health sector costs of COVID-19 clinical management in 79 LMICs under different epidemiological scenarios.

methodsWe used country-specific epidemiological projections from a dynamic transmission model to determine number of cases, hospitalisations and deaths over 1 year under four mitigation scenarios. We defined the health sector response for three base LMICs through guidelines and expert opinion. We calculated costs through local resource use and price data and extrapolated costs across 79 LMICs. Lastly, we compared cost estimates against gross domestic product (GDP) and total annual health expenditure in 76 LMICs.

resultsCOVID-19 clinical management costs vary greatly by country, ranging between <0.1%-12% of GDP and 0.4%-223% of total annual health expenditure (excluding out-of-pocket payments). Without mitigation policies, COVID-19 clinical management costs per capita range from US$43.39 to US$75.57; in 22 of 76 LMICs, these costs would surpass total annual health expenditure. In a scenario of stringent social distancing, costs per capita fall to US$1.10-US$1.32.

conclusionsWe present the first dataset of COVID-19 clinical management costs across LMICs. These costs can be used to inform decision-making on priority setting. Our results show that COVID-19 clinical management costs in LMICs are substantial, even in scenarios of moderate social distancing. Low-income countries are particularly vulnerable and some will struggle to cope with almost any epidemiological scenario. The choices facing LMICs are likely to remain stark and emergency financial support will be needed.

Indexed as

COVID-19Developing CountriesGross Domestic ProductHumansPolicySARS-CoV-2COVID-19health economics

Identifiers

PMID34857521
PMCPMC8640196
OpenAlexW3183646129

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.