ArticleEcosphere (Washington, D.C)2019
Tree mortality submodels drive simulated long-term forest dynamics: assessing 15 models from the stand to global scale.
Article in Ecosphere (Washington, D.C), 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers.
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Who cites it
24 citing papers in PubMed, 183 citations in OpenAlex.
- Mechanisms and scales in modeling forest responses to changing disturbance regimes.The New phytologist · 2026Review
- Pervasive increase in tree mortality across the Australian continent.Nature plants · 2026Article
- Longer growing seasons will not offset growth loss in drought-prone temperate forests of Central-Southeast Europe.Nature communications · 2025Article
- The Effects of Frost and Fire on the Traits, Resources, and Floral Visitors of a Cerrado Plant, and Their Impact on the Plant-Visitor Interaction Network and Fruit Formation.Plants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- "Mortality, or not mortality, that is the question …": How to Treat Removals in Tree Survival Analysis of Central European Managed Forests.Plants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- A new approach to derive productivity of tropical forests using radar remote sensing measurements.Royal Society open science · 2023Article
- Multiscale predictors of small tree survival across a heterogeneous tropical landscape.PloS one · 2023Article
- Balancing disturbance risk and ecosystem service provisioning in Swiss mountain forests: an increasing challenge under climate change.Regional environmental change · 2023Article
- The evolution, complexity and diversity of models of long-term forest dynamics.The Journal of ecology · 2022Article
- Interaction of drought- and pathogen-induced mortality in Norway spruce and Scots pine.Plant, cell & environment · 2022Article
- Future climate risks from stress, insects and fire across US forests.Ecology letters · 2022Article
- Unlocking Drought-Induced Tree Mortality: Physiological Mechanisms to Modeling.Frontiers in plant science · 2022Review
- An evaluation of multi-species empirical tree mortality algorithms for dynamic vegetation modelling.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Interspecific variation in mortality and growth and changes in their relationship with size class in an old-growth temperate forest.Ecology and evolution · 2021Article
- Stand-scale climate change impacts on forests over large areas: transient responses and projection uncertainties.Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America · 2021Article
- Tackling unresolved questions in forest ecology: The past and future role of simulation models.Ecology and evolution · 2021Review
- Implications of size-dependent tree mortality for tropical forest carbon dynamics.Nature plants · 2021Review
- Large-scale variations in the dynamics of Amazon forest canopy gaps from airborne lidar data and opportunities for tree mortality estimates.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Leaf Shedding and Non-Stomatal Limitations of Photosynthesis Mitigate Hydraulic Conductance Losses in Scots Pine Saplings During Severe Drought Stress.Frontiers in plant science · 2021Article
- Simulating forest resilience: A review.Global ecology and biogeography : a journal of macroecology · 2020Article
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Authors and funding
32 authors at 19 institutions in 10 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Models are pivotal for assessing future forest dynamics under the impacts of changing climate and management practices, incorporating representations of tree growth, mortality, and regeneration. Quantitative studies on the importance of mortality submodels are scarce. We evaluated 15 dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) regarding their sensitivity to different formulations of tree mortality under different degrees of climate change. The set of models comprised eight DVMs at the stand scale, three at the landscape scale, and four typically applied at the continental to global scale. Some incorporate empirically derived mortality models, and others are based on experimental data, whereas still others are based on theoretical reasoning. Each DVM was run with at least two alternative mortality submodels. Model behavior was evaluated against empirical time series data, and then, the models were subjected to different scenarios of climate change. Most DVMs matched empirical data quite well, irrespective of the mortality submodel that was used. However, mortality submodels that performed in a very similar manner against past data often led to sharply different trajectories of forest dynamics under future climate change. Most DVMs featured high sensitivity to the mortality submodel, with deviations of basal area and stem numbers on the order of 10-40% per century under current climate and 20-170% under climate change. The sensitivity of a given DVM to scenarios of climate change, however, was typically lower by a factor of two to three. We conclude that (1) mortality is one of the most uncertain processes when it comes to assessing forest response to climate change, and (2) more data and a better process understanding of tree mortality are needed to improve the robustness of simulated future forest dynamics. Our study highlights that comparing several alternative mortality formulations in DVMs provides valuable insights into the effects of process uncertainties on simulated future forest dynamics.
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