Trial reportSeizure2022
Risk of seizure recurrence in people with single seizures and early epilepsy - Model development and external validation.
Trial report in Seizure, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 15 citations in OpenAlex.
- Prognostic factors predicting an unprovoked seizure recurrence in children and adults following a first unprovoked seizure.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2025Pooled it
- Agreement between heuristic shrinkage factor and optimal shrinkage factors in logistic regression for risk prediction: a simulation study across different sample sizes and settings.Diagnostic and prognostic research · 2026Article
- Structural brain imaging biomarkers for predicting seizure recurrence after a first unprovoked seizure.Epilepsia open · 2026Article
- An Evolving Understanding of Interictal Epileptiform Discharges.Epilepsy currents · 2026Review
- EEG focal delta slowing in focal epilepsy - A didactic review.Clinical neurophysiology practice · 2025Review
- Epilepsy and nicotine use: Exploring disparities in ENDS and cigarette use among US adults with epilepsy.Epilepsy & behavior : E&B · 2025Article
- Article
- Polygenic risk scores as a marker for epilepsy risk across lifetime and after unspecified seizure events.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Predicting seizure recurrence after an initial seizure-like episode from routine clinical notes using large language models: a retrospective cohort study.The Lancet. Digital health · 2023Article
- Polygenic risk scores as a marker for epilepsy risk across lifetime and after unspecified seizure events.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
8 authors at 7 institutions in 4 countries.
Funding
Abstract
purposeFollowing a single seizure, or recent epilepsy diagnosis, it is difficult to balance risk of medication side effects with the potential to prevent seizure recurrence. A prediction model was developed and validated enabling risk stratification which in turn informs treatment decisions and individualises counselling.
methodsData from a randomised controlled trial was used to develop a prediction model for risk of seizure recurrence following a first seizure or diagnosis of epilepsy. Time-to-event data was modelled via Cox's proportional hazards regression. Model validity was assessed via discrimination and calibration using the original dataset and also using three external datasets - National General Practice Survey of Epilepsy (NGPSE), Western Australian first seizure database (WA) and FIRST (Italian dataset of people with first tonic-clonic seizures).
resultsPeople with neurological deficit, focal seizures, abnormal EEG, not indicated for CT/MRI scan, or not immediately treated have a significantly higher risk of seizure recurrence. Discrimination was fair and consistent across the datasets (c-statistics: 0.555 (NGPSE); 0.558 (WA); 0.597 (FIRST)). Calibration plots showed good agreement between observed and predicted probabilities in NGPSE at one and three years. Plots for WA and FIRST showed poorer agreement with the model underpredicting risk in WA, and over-predicting in FIRST. This was resolved following model recalibration.
conclusionThe model performs well in independent data especially when recalibrated. It should now be used in clinical practice as it can improve the lives of people with single seizures and early epilepsy by enabling targeted treatment choices and more informed patient counselling.
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What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.