Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34851485›Full record

ArticleEnvironmental science and pollution research international2022

Evaluation of historical CMIP6 model simulations and future projections of temperature over the Pan-Third Pole region.

Xuewei Fan, Qingyun Duan, Chenwei Shen, Yi Wu, Chang Xing

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Environmental science and pollution research international, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

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Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Xuewei FanState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China.
Qingyun DuanState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China. qyduan@hhu.edu.cn.
Chenwei ShenState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China.
Yi WuState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China.
Chang XingState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China.

Funding

national natural science foundation of china 51979004strategic priority research program of the chinese academy of sciences XDA20060401
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The Pan-Third Pole (PTP) region, which encompasses the Eurasian highlands and their surroundings, has experienced unprecedented, accelerated warming during the past decades. This study evaluates the performance of historical simulation runs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in capturing spatial patterns and temporal variations observed over the PTP region for mean and extreme temperatures. In addition, projected changes in temperatures under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) are also reported. Four indices were used to characterize changes in temperature extremes: the annual maximum value of daily maximum temperature (TXx), the annual minimum value of daily minimum temperature (TNn), and indices for the percentage of warm days (TX90p) and warm nights (TN90p). Results indicate that most CMIP6 models generally capture the characteristics of the observed mean and extreme temperatures over the PTP region, but there still are slight cold biases in the Tibetan Plateau. Future changes of mean and extreme temperatures demonstrate that a strong increase will occur for the entire PTP region during the twenty-first century under all four SSP scenarios. Between 2015 and 2099, ensemble area-averaged annual mean temperatures are projected to increase by 1.24 °C/100 year, 3.28 °C/100 year, 5.57 °C/100 year, and 7.40 °C/100 year for the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. For TXx and TNn, the most intense warming is projected in Central Asia. The greatest number of projected TX90p and TN90p will occur in the Southeast Asia and Tibetan Plateau, respectively.

Indexed as

Climate ChangeHot TemperatureCold TemperatureForecastingTemperatureClimate changeCMIP6TemperatureThe Pan-Third Pole

Identifiers

PMID34851485
PMCPMC8989916

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.