ArticleThe British journal of surgery2022
Growth prediction model for abdominal aortic aneurysms.
Article in The British journal of surgery, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Forecasting Patient-Specific Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Geometry with Mixed-Effects Models.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Geometry quantification for growth assessment of abdominal aortic aneurysms under surveillance.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Morphological analysis of hostile neck anatomy in abdominal aortic aneurysm with consecutive 6-month computed tomography angiography - a cohort study.International journal of surgery (London, England) · 2026Article
- Association between non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and progression of abdominal aortic aneurysm: a multicenter study.BMC medical imaging · 2025Article
- Predicting the growth of asymptomatic small abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) based on deep learning.Frontiers in physiology · 2025Article
- Size thresholds for repair of abdominal aortic aneurysms warrant reconsideration.Journal of vascular surgery · 2024Article
- Circulating monocyte populations as biomarker for abdominal aortic aneurysms: a single-center retrospective cohort study.Frontiers in immunology · 2024Article
- Soluble ST2 as a Potential Biomarker for Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms-A Single-Center Retrospective Cohort Study.International journal of molecular sciences · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
11 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThe most relevant determinant in scheduling monitoring intervals for abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) is maximum diameter. The aim of the study was to develop a statistical model that takes into account specific characteristics of AAA growth distributions such as between-patient variability as well as within-patient variability across time, and allows probabilistic statements to be made regarding expected AAA growth.
methodsCT angiography (CTA) data from patients monitored at 6-month intervals with maximum AAA diameters at baseline between 30 and 66 mm were used to develop the model. By extending the model of geometric Brownian motion with a log-normal random effect, a stochastic growth model was developed. An additional set of ultrasound-based growth data was used for external validation.
resultsThe study data included 363 CTAs from 87 patients, and the external validation set comprised 390 patients. Internal and external cross-validation showed that the stochastic growth model allowed accurate description of the distribution of aneurysm growth. Median relative growth within 1 year was 4.1 (5-95 per cent quantile 0.5-13.3) per cent. Model calculations further resulted in relative 1-year growth of 7.0 (1.0-16.4) per cent for patients with previously observed rapid 1-year growth of 10 per cent, and 2.6 (0.3-8.3) per cent for those with previously observed slow growth of 1 per cent. The probability of exceeding a threshold of 55 mm was calculated to be 1.78 per cent at most when adhering to the current RESCAN guidelines for rescreening intervals. An online calculator based on the fitted model was made available.
conclusionThe stochastic growth model was found to provide a reliable tool for predicting AAA growth.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.