ArticleLancet regional health. Americas2022
Model-based assessment of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant transmission dynamics within partially vaccinated K-12 school populations.
Article in Lancet regional health. Americas, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers.
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Who cites it
19 citing papers in PubMed.
- Building an agile state-wide research infrastructure to address COVID-19 and emerging threats: insights from an equity-centered public health and academic collaboration in California.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- COVID-19 Incidence and Age Eligibility for Elementary School.JAMA network open · 2024Article
- Incorporating social determinants of health into transmission modeling of COVID-19 vaccine in the US: a scoping review.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2024Article
- Limited impact of lifting universal masks on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in schools: The crucial role of outcome measurements.PNAS nexus · 2024Article
- Seroincidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection prior to and during the rollout of vaccines in a community-based prospective cohort of U.S. adults.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Seroincidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection prior to and during the rollout of vaccines in a community-based prospective cohort of U.S. adults.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2023Article
- Spatio-Temporal Patterns of the SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic in Germany.Entropy (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- A multi-strain model with asymptomatic transmission: Application to COVID-19 in the US.Journal of theoretical biology · 2023Article
- COVID-19 outbreak trends in Canada, 2021.Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada · 2023Article
- Health surveillance for SARS-CoV-2: infection spread and vaccination coverage in the schools of Modena province, Italy.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Modeling COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics: A Bibliometric Review.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Review
- COVID-19 surveillance in the Flemish school system: development of systematic data collection within the public health school system and descriptive analysis of cases reported between October 2020 and June 2021.BMC public health · 2022Article
- Usage of Compartmental Models in Predicting COVID-19 Outbreaks.The AAPS journal · 2022Review
- COVID-19 in children: epidemic issues and candidate vaccines.Chinese medical journal · 2022Review
- In-person schooling and associated COVID-19 risk in the United States over spring semester 2021.Science advances · 2022Article
- Modeling the Transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant in a Partially Vaccinated Population.Viruses · 2022Article
- Article
- Potential of Endogenous Oxytocin in Endocrine Treatment and Prevention of COVID-19.Frontiers in endocrinology · 2022Review
- No magic bullet: Limiting in-school transmission in the face of variable SARS-CoV-2 viral loads.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
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Funding
Abstract
backgroundWe examined school reopening policies amidst ongoing transmission of the highly transmissible Delta variant, accounting for vaccination among individuals ≥12 years.
methodsWe collected data on social contacts among school-aged children in the California Bay Area and developed an individual-based transmission model to simulate transmission of the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 in schools. We evaluated the additional infections in students and teachers/staff resulting over a 128-day semester from in-school instruction compared to remote instruction when various NPIs (mask use, cohorts, and weekly testing of students/teachers) were implemented, across various community-wide vaccination coverages (50%, 60%, 70%), and student (≥12 years) and teacher/staff vaccination coverages (50% - 95%).
findingsAt 70% vaccination coverage, universal masking reduced infections by >57% among students. Masking plus 70% vaccination coverage enabled achievement of <50 excess cases per 1,000 students/teachers, but stricter risk tolerances, such as <25 excess infections per 1,000 students/teachers, required a cohort approach in elementary and middle school populations. In the absence of NPIs, increasing the vaccination coverage of community members from 50% to 70% or elementary teachers from 70% to 95% reduced the excess rate of infection among elementary school students attributable to school transmission by 24% and 37%, respectively. INTERPRETATIONS: Amidst Delta variant circulation, we found that schools are not inherently low risk, yet can be made so with high community vaccination coverages and masking. Vaccination of adults protects unvaccinated children.
fundingNational Science Foundation grant no. 2032210; National Institutes of Health grant nos. R01AI125842 and R01AI148336; MIDAS Coordination Center (MIDASSUP2020-4).
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