ArticlemedRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences2021
COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in India, the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant, and implications for vaccination.
Article in medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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1 citing paper in PubMed, 55 citations in OpenAlex.
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2 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThe COVID-19 Delta pandemic wave in India surged and declined within 3 months; cases then remained low despite the continued spread of Delta elsewhere. Here we aim to estimate key epidemiological characteristics of the Delta variant based on data from India and examine the underpinnings of its dynamics.
methodsWe utilize multiple datasets and model-inference methods to reconstruct COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in India during March 2020 - June 2021. We further use model estimates to retrospectively predict cases and deaths during July - mid-Oct 2021, under various vaccination and vaccine effectiveness (VE) settings to estimate the impact of vaccination and VE for non-Delta-infection recoverees.
findingsWe estimate that Delta escaped immunity in 34.6% (95% CI: 0 - 64.2%) of individuals with prior wildtype infection and was 57.0% (95% CI: 37.9 - 75.6%) more infectious than wildtype SARS-CoV-2. Models assuming higher VE among those with prior non-Delta infection, particularly after the 1
interpretationNon-pharmaceutical interventions, infection seasonality, and high coverage of 1-dose vaccination likely all contributed to pandemic dynamics in India during 2021. Given the shortage of COVID-19 vaccines globally and boosting of VE, for populations with high prior infection rates, prioritizing the first vaccine-dose may protect more people. RESEARCH IN CONTEXT:
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