ArticleJournal of intensive care medicine2022
Reverse Bayesian Implications of p-Values Reported in Critical Care Randomized Trials.
Article in Journal of intensive care medicine, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
What it found
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The trial behind it
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Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- The determinants of fluid accumulation in critically ill children: a prospective single-center cohort study.Pediatric nephrology (Berlin, Germany) · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundMisinterpretations of the p-value in null-hypothesis statistical testing are common. We aimed to determine the implications of observed p-values in critical care randomized controlled trials (RCTs).
methodsWe included three cohorts of published RCTs: Adult-RCTs reporting a mortality outcome, Pediatric-RCTs reporting a mortality outcome, and recent Consecutive-RCTs reporting p-value ≤.10 in six higher-impact journals. We recorded descriptive information from RCTs. Reverse Bayesian implications of obtained p-values were calculated, reported as percentages with inter-quartile ranges.
resultsObtained p-value was ≤.005 in 11/216 (5.1%) Adult-RCTs, 2/120 (1.7%) Pediatric-RCTs, and 37/90 (41.1%) Consecutive-RCTs. An obtained p-value .05-.0051 had high False Positive Rates; in Adult-RCTs, minimum (assuming prior probability of the alternative hypothesis was 50%) and realistic (assuming prior probability of the alternative hypothesis was 10%) False Positive Rates were 16.7% [11.2, 21.8] and 64.3% [53.2, 71.4]. An obtained p-value ≤.005 had lower False Positive Rates; in Adult-RCTs the realistic False Positive Rate was 7.7% [7.7, 16.0]. The realistic probability of the alternative hypothesis for obtained p-value .05-.0051 (ie, Positive Predictive Value) was 28.0% [24.1, 34.8], 30.6% [27.7, 48.5], 29.3% [24.3, 41.0], and 32.7% [24.1, 43.5] for Adult-RCTs, Pediatric-RCTs, Consecutive-RCTs primary and secondary outcome, respectively. The maximum Positive Predictive Value for p-value category .05-.0051 was median 77.8%, 79.8%, 78.8%, and 81.4% respectively. To have maximum or realistic Positive Predictive Value >90% or >80%, RCTs needed to have obtained p-value ≤.005. The credibility of p-value .05-.0051 findings were easy to challenge, and the credibility to rule-out an effect with p-value >.05 to .10 was low. The probability that a replication study would obtain p-value ≤.05 did not approach 90% unless the obtained p-value was ≤.005.
conclusionsUnless the obtained p-value was ≤.005, the False Positive Rate was high, and the Positive Predictive Value and probability of replication of "statistically significant" findings were low.
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