Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34841728›Full record

ArticleClinical and translational allergy2021

Development of childhood asthma prediction models using machine learning approaches.

Dilini M Kothalawala, Clare S Murray, Angela Simpson, Adnan Custovic, William J Tapper, S Hasan Arshad, John W Holloway, Faisal I Rezwan, STELAR/UNICORN investigators

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Clinical and translational allergy, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
25citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
3.5field-weighted citation impact, top 7% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

25 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 51 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Pooled it
  4. Pooled it
  5. Review
  6. Prediction of allergic disease trajectories from birth up to adolescence.Pediatric allergy and immunology : official publication of the European Society of Pediatric Allergy and Immunology · 2026
    Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Machine learning-based early prediction of asthma in preschoolers: The COCOA birth cohort study.Pediatric allergy and immunology : official publication of the European Society of Pediatric Allergy and Immunology · 2025
    Article
  10. Article
  11. AI model for predicting asthma prognosis in children.The journal of allergy and clinical immunology. Global · 2025
    Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Artificial intelligence in pediatric allergy research.European journal of pediatrics · 2024
    Review
  15. Association of urinary eosinophilic protein X at age 3 years and subsequent persistence of wheezing and asthma diagnosis in adolescence.Pediatric allergy and immunology : official publication of the European Society of Pediatric Allergy and Immunology · 2024
    Article
  16. Article
  17. Review
  18. Article
  19. Review
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors at 5 institutions in 2 countries.

Dilini M KothalawalaHuman Development and Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5804-0457
Clare S MurrayDivision of Infection, Immunity, and Respiratory Medicine, School of Biological Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester University Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, Manchester, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8961-8055
Angela SimpsonDivision of Infection, Immunity, and Respiratory Medicine, School of Biological Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester University Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, Manchester, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2733-6666
Adnan CustovicNational Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College of Science, Technology, and Medicine, London, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5218-7071
William J TapperHuman Development and Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5896-1889
S Hasan ArshadNIHR Southampton Biomedical Research Centre, University Hospital Southampton, Southampton, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5988-235X
John W HollowayHuman Development and Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9998-0464
Faisal I RezwanHuman Development and Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9921-222X
STELAR/UNICORN investigators
University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust · GBManchester Academic Health Science Centre · GBAberystwyth University · GBLung Institute · USUniversity of Southampton · GB

Funding

Medical Research Council G0601361Medical Research Council MR/K002449/1Medical Research Council MR/K002449/2Medical Research Council MR/L012693/1Medical Research Council MR/S025340/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundRespiratory symptoms are common in early life and often transient. It is difficult to identify in which children these will persist and result in asthma. Machine learning (ML) approaches have the potential for better predictive performance and generalisability over existing childhood asthma prediction models. This study applied ML approaches to predict school-age asthma (age 10) in early life (Childhood Asthma Prediction in Early life, CAPE model) and at preschool age (Childhood Asthma Prediction at Preschool age, CAPP model).

methodsClinical and environmental exposure data was collected from children enrolled in the Isle of Wight Birth Cohort (N = 1368, ∼15% asthma prevalence). Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) identified an optimal subset of features predictive of school-age asthma for each model. Seven state-of-the-art ML classification algorithms were used to develop prognostic models. Training was performed by applying fivefold cross-validation, imputation, and resampling. Predictive performance was evaluated on the test set. Models were further externally validated in the Manchester Asthma and Allergy Study (MAAS) cohort.

resultsRFE identified eight and twelve predictors for the CAPE and CAPP models, respectively. Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithms provided the best performance for both the CAPE (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, AUC = 0.71) and CAPP (AUC = 0.82) models. Both models demonstrated good generalisability in MAAS (CAPE 8-year = 0.71, 11-year = 0.71, CAPP 8-year = 0.83, 11-year = 0.79) and excellent sensitivity to predict a subgroup of persistent wheezers.

conclusionUsing ML approaches improved upon the predictive performance of existing regression-based models, with good generalisability and ability to rule in asthma and predict persistent wheeze.

Indexed as

asthmaAsthmachildhoodKindheitmachine learningmaschinelles LernenpredictionPrognose

Identifiers

PMID34841728
PMCPMC9815427
OpenAlexW3141189726

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.