Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34837021›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2021

Using explainable machine learning to characterise data drift and detect emergent health risks for emergency department admissions during COVID-19.

Christopher Duckworth, Francis P Chmiel, Dan K Burns, Zlatko D Zlatev, Neil M White, Thomas W V Daniels, Michael Kiuber, Michael J Boniface

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 45 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
45citing papers in PubMed
9.4field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

45 citing papers in PubMed, 96 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Christopher DuckworthSchool of Electronics and Computer Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK. C.J.Duckworth@soton.ac.uk.
Francis P ChmielSchool of Electronics and Computer Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
Dan K BurnsSchool of Electronics and Computer Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
Zlatko D ZlatevSchool of Electronics and Computer Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
Neil M WhiteSchool of Electronics and Computer Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
Thomas W V DanielsDepartment of Respiratory Medicine, Minerva House, University Hospital Southampton, Southampton, UK.
Michael KiuberEmergency Department, University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust, Southampton, UK.
Michael J BonifaceSchool of Electronics and Computer Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
University of Southampton · GBUniversity Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust · GB

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

A key task of emergency departments is to promptly identify patients who require hospital admission. Early identification ensures patient safety and aids organisational planning. Supervised machine learning algorithms can use data describing historical episodes to make ahead-of-time predictions of clinical outcomes. Despite this, clinical settings are dynamic environments and the underlying data distributions characterising episodes can change with time (data drift), and so can the relationship between episode characteristics and associated clinical outcomes (concept drift). Practically this means deployed algorithms must be monitored to ensure their safety. We demonstrate how explainable machine learning can be used to monitor data drift, using the COVID-19 pandemic as a severe example. We present a machine learning classifier trained using (pre-COVID-19) data, to identify patients at high risk of admission during an emergency department attendance. We then evaluate our model's performance on attendances occurring pre-pandemic (AUROC of 0.856 with 95%CI [0.852, 0.859]) and during the COVID-19 pandemic (AUROC of 0.826 with 95%CI [0.814, 0.837]). We demonstrate two benefits of explainable machine learning (SHAP) for models deployed in healthcare settings: (1) By tracking the variation in a feature's SHAP value relative to its global importance, a complimentary measure of data drift is found which highlights the need to retrain a predictive model. (2) By observing the relative changes in feature importance emergent health risks can be identified.

Indexed as

COVID-19Emergency Service, HospitalMachine LearningAlgorithmsFemaleHospitalizationHumansMaleMiddle AgedPandemicsPatient AdmissionSARS-CoV-2

Identifiers

PMID34837021
PMCPMC8626460
OpenAlexW3217489051

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.