ArticleVaccines2021
Impact of COVID-19 Disruptions on Global BCG Coverage and Paediatric TB Mortality: A Modelling Study.
Article in Vaccines, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
18 citing papers in PubMed.
- Transgression of planetary boundaries and the effects on child health through an infectious diseases lens.Current opinion in pediatrics · 2025Review
- Assessing Immunization Coverage and the Negative Impact of Local Vaccine Production Cessation in Ecuador.Vaccines · 2025Article
- Global burden of tuberculous meningitis in children aged 0-14 years in 2019: a mathematical modelling study.The Lancet. Global health · 2025Article
- Predicting the Incidence Rate of Tuberculosis in Western Iran Using Time Series Models Before and After COVID-19.Medical journal of the Islamic Republic of Iran · 2025Article
- COVID-19 related disruption and resilience in immunisation activities in LMICs: a rapid review.BMJ open · 2024Review
- Urinary markers of Mycobacterium tuberculosis and dysbiosis in paediatric tuberculous meningitis cases undergoing treatment.Gut pathogens · 2024Article
- The global impact of COVID-19 on tuberculosis: A thematic scoping review, 2020-2023.PLOS global public health · 2024Article
- Impact of COVID-19 on selected essential public health services - lessons learned from a retrospective record review in the Free State, South Africa.BMC health services research · 2023Article
- Effect of COVID-19 on immunization coverage of children aged 0-11 months in the center region of Cameroon.Journal of public health in Africa · 2023Article
- Scoping review of modelling studies assessing the impact of disruptions to essential health services during COVID-19.BMJ open · 2023Article
- Estimating global changes in routine childhood vaccination coverage during the COVID-19 pandemic, 2020-2021.Vaccine · 2023Article
- Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Tuberculosis Preventive Services and Their Post-Pandemic Recovery Strategies: A Rapid Review of Literature.Journal of Korean medical science · 2023Review
- Multidrug-Resistant TB (MDR-TB) and Extensively Drug-Resistant TB (XDR-TB) Among Children: Where We Stand Now.Cureus · 2023Review
- The intersecting pandemics of tuberculosis and COVID-19: population-level and patient-level impact, clinical presentation, and corrective interventions.The Lancet. Respiratory medicine · 2022Review
- Impacts of COVID-19-related service disruptions on TB incidence and deaths in Indonesia, Kyrgyzstan, Malawi, Mozambique, and Peru: Implications for national TB responses.PLOS global public health · 2022Article
- Tuberculosis and COVID-19 co-infection in Serbia: Pandemic challenge in a low-burden country.Frontiers in medicine · 2022Article
- The Dark Side of the COVID-19 Treatments onMediterranean journal of hematology and infectious diseases · 2022Review
- Tuberculous Meningitis in Children: A Forgotten Public Health Emergency.Frontiers in neurology · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The impact of COVID-19 disruptions on global Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) coverage and paediatric tuberculosis (TB) mortality is still unknown. To fill this evidence-gap and guide mitigation measures, we estimated the impact of COVID-19 disruptions on global BCG coverage and paediatric TB mortality. First, we used data from multiple sources to estimate COVID-19-disrupted BCG vaccination coverage. Second, using a static mathematical model, we estimated the number of additional paediatric TB deaths in the first 15 years of life due to delayed/missed vaccinations in 14 scenarios-varying in duration of disruption, and magnitude and timing of catch-up. We estimated a 25% reduction in global BCG coverage within the disruption period. The best-case scenario (3-month disruption, 100% catch-up within 3 months) resulted in an additional 886 (0.5%) paediatric TB deaths, and the worst-case scenario (6-month disruption with no catch-up) resulted in an additional 33,074 (17%) deaths. The magnitude of catch-up was found to be the most influential variable in minimising excess paediatric TB mortality. Our results show that ensuring catch-up vaccination of missed children is a critical priority, and delivery of BCG alongside other routine vaccines may be a feasible way to achieve catch-up. Urgent action is required to support countries with recovering vaccination coverages to minimise paediatric deaths.
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