ArticlePathogens (Basel, Switzerland)2021
The Predictive Value of Mutation Screening for Anticipating COVID-19 Waves.
Article in Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland), 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed.
- The deadly triple M (mistrust, misinformation, and missed opportunities): understanding Romania's COVID-19 vaccination campaign and its lasting impact on public health.Frontiers in public health · 2025Review
- Analyzing the Systems Biology Effects of COVID-19 mRNA Vaccines to Assess Their Safety and Putative Side Effects.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- Article
- Tracking the Initial Diffusion of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant in Italy by RT-PCR and Comparison with Alpha and Delta Variants Spreading.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
10 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Emerging SARS-CoV-2 strains continue to generate difficulties for authorities and health care professionals worldwide due to enhanced transmissibility and/or immune response evasion. The appearance of the Alpha and Delta strains has been associated with substantial increases in the number of COVID-19 cases and associated deaths. Whole Genome Sequencing (WGS) continues to be the gold standard for molecular surveillance of the pandemics but other assays such as mutation genotyping can be used to reduce costs and allocated time. This study investigates the efficiency of mutation screening tests compared to WGS and their predictive value to anticipate future waves. A very high degree of fidelity for this type of assay was found, regardless of the method used. The positive predictive value (PPV) of 4/5 markers was over 95% for the detection of Alpha and Delta variants. By estimating the prevalence of the Alpha and Delta strains using genotyping assays and fitting the data to a mathematical model, a five week period between the point of exponential growth of variant prevalence and a drastic increase in case numbers was found. For that reason, raising awareness about the efficacy of mutation screening could help authorities adopt better measures in the future.
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Registered trials
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