ArticleBMC infectious diseases2021
Epidemic size, trend and spatiotemporal mapping of SARS-CoV-2 using geographical information system in Alborz Province, Iran.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Spatio-Temporal COVID-19 Modeling: A Global Systematic Review of Data Integration, Equity, and Lessons for Pandemic Preparedness.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2026Pooled it
- Impact of incentives on COVID-19 vaccination; A systematic review.Frontiers in medicine · 2022Pooled it
- A data-driven analysis on the mediation effect of compartment models between control measures and COVID-19 epidemics.Heliyon · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
18 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThe first confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Iran were reported in Qom city. Subsequently, the neighboring provinces and gradually all 31 provinces of Iran were involved. This study aimed to investigate the case fatility rate, basic reproductive number in different period of epidemic, projection of daily and cumulative incidence cases and also spatiotemporal mapping of SARS-CoV-2 in Alborz province, Iran.
methodsA confirmed case of COVID-19 infection was defined as a case with a positive result of viral nucleic acid testing in respiratory specimens. Serial interval (SI) was fitted by gamma distribution and considered the likelihood-based R0 using a branching process with Poisson likelihood. Seven days average of cases, deaths, doubling times and CFRs used to draw smooth charts. kernel density tool in Arc GIS (Esri) software has been employed to compute hot spot area of the study site.
resultsThe maximum-likelihood value of R0 was 2.88 (95%, CI: 2.57-3.23) in the early 14 days of epidemic. The case fatility rate for Alborz province (Iran) on March 10, was 8.33% (95%, CI:6.3-11), and by April 20, it had an increasing trend and reached 12.9% (95%,CI:11.5-14.4). The doubling time has been increasing from about two days and then reached about 97 days on April 20, 2020, which shows the slowdown in the spread rate of the disease. Also, from March 26 to April 2, 2020 the whole Geographical area of Karj city was almost affected by SARS-CoV-2.
conclusionsThe R0 of COVID-19 in Alborz province was substantially high at the beginning of the epidemic, but with preventive measures and public education and GIS based monitoring of the cases,it has been reduced to 1.19 within two months. This reduction highpoints the attainment of preventive measures in place, however we must be ready for any second epidemic waves during the next months.
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