Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34815461›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2021

Analyzing artificial intelligence systems for the prediction of atrial fibrillation from sinus-rhythm ECGs including demographics and feature visualization.

Pietro Melzi, Ruben Tolosana, Alberto Cecconi, Ancor Sanz-Garcia, Guillermo J Ortega, Luis Jesus Jimenez-Borreguero, Ruben Vera-Rodriguez

Erratum issuedOpen access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 14 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
14citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
3.0field-weighted citation impact, top 7% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

14 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 27 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
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  3. Electrocardiographic Predictors of Atrial Fibrillation.Medical sciences (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023
    Pooled it
  4. [Atrial fibrillation screening-reading the P-wave].Innere Medizin (Heidelberg, Germany) · 2026
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  7. Artificial Intelligence-Enhanced Electrocardiography for Predicting Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation From Sinus Rhythm: Impact of Data Integration Across Institutions and Devices.Annals of noninvasive electrocardiology : the official journal of the International Society for Holter and Noninvasive Electrocardiology, Inc · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.

Pietro MelziBiometrics and Data Pattern Analytics Lab, Escuela Politecnica Superior, Universidad Autonoma de Madrid, Calle Francisco Tomas Y Valiente, 11, C-235, 28049, Madrid, Spain.
Ruben TolosanaBiometrics and Data Pattern Analytics Lab, Escuela Politecnica Superior, Universidad Autonoma de Madrid, Calle Francisco Tomas Y Valiente, 11, C-235, 28049, Madrid, Spain. ruben.tolosana@uam.es.
Alberto CecconiInstituto de Investigacion Sanitaria del Hospital Universitario de La Princesa, Madrid, Spain.
Ancor Sanz-GarciaInstituto de Investigacion Sanitaria del Hospital Universitario de La Princesa, Madrid, Spain.
Guillermo J OrtegaInstituto de Investigacion Sanitaria del Hospital Universitario de La Princesa, Madrid, Spain.
Luis Jesus Jimenez-Borreguero *Instituto de Investigacion Sanitaria del Hospital Universitario de La Princesa, Madrid, Spain.
Ruben Vera-Rodriguez *Biometrics and Data Pattern Analytics Lab, Escuela Politecnica Superior, Universidad Autonoma de Madrid, Calle Francisco Tomas Y Valiente, 11, C-235, 28049, Madrid, Spain.
Hospital Universitario de La Princesa · ESUniversidad Autónoma de Madrid · ES

Funding

BIBECA RTI2018-101248-B-I00 MINECO/FEDERHealth Strategy action 2020-2022 PI20/00792TRESPASS-ETN H2020-MSCAITN-2019-860813
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is an abnormal heart rhythm, asymptomatic in many cases, that causes several health problems and mortality in population. This retrospective study evaluates the ability of different AI-based models to predict future episodes of AF from electrocardiograms (ECGs) recorded during normal sinus rhythm. Patients are divided into two classes according to AF occurrence or sinus rhythm permanence along their several ECGs registry. In the constrained scenario of balancing the age distributions between classes, our best AI model predicts future episodes of AF with area under the curve (AUC) 0.79 (0.72-0.86). Multiple scenarios and age-sex-specific groups of patients are considered, achieving best performance of prediction for males older than 70 years. These results point out the importance of considering different demographic groups in the analysis of AF prediction, showing considerable performance gaps among them. In addition to the demographic analysis, we apply feature visualization techniques to identify the most important portions of the ECG signals in the task of AF prediction, improving this way the interpretability and understanding of the AI models. These results and the simplicity of recording ECGs during check-ups add feasibility to clinical applications of AI-based models.

Indexed as

Artificial IntelligenceHeart RateAdolescentAdultAgedAged, 80 and overArea Under CurveAtrial FibrillationDemographyElectrocardiographyFemaleFollow-Up StudiesHumansMaleMiddle AgedPrognosis

Identifiers

PMID34815461
PMCPMC8610971
OpenAlexW3217053237

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.