ArticleBMC infectious diseases2021
Exploring relationships between drought and epidemic cholera in Africa using generalised linear models.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.
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Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed, 26 citations in OpenAlex.
- Drought dynamics explain once in a century yellow fever virus outbreak in Brazil with implications for climate change.Science advances · 2026Article
- Modelling the impact of climate on cholera: a case study of Kolkata.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Identification of priority areas for cholera control, Cameroon.Bulletin of the World Health Organization · 2026Article
- Using data science to identify climate change and health adverse impacts and solutions in Africa: a scoping review.npj health systems · 2026Article
- The Vulnerability and Resilience of Drinking Water Systems to Extreme Weather Events and Future Climate Change.Current environmental health reports · 2026Review
- Epidemiologic Characteristics and Predictors of Mortality in Somalia's 2024 Cholera Outbreak.Journal of epidemiology and global health · 2026Article
- Modelling the impact of vaccination on cholera transmission dynamics under stratified populations and seasonality.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Data in the time of cholera: an assessment of global data resources for optimising surveillance, response and control.BMJ global health · 2025Review
- Comparison of analysis methods to classify cholera hotspots in Ethiopia from 2015 to 2021.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Cholera Outbreaks in Zimbabwe: An In-Depth Analysis of Drivers, Constraints and Reimagining the Use of Medicinal Plants.Journal of tropical medicine · 2024Review
- Essential health services delivery and quality improvement actions under drought and food insecurity emergency in north-east Uganda.BMC health services research · 2023Article
- Association between Conflict and Cholera in Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.Emerging infectious diseases · 2022Article
- The impact of social and environmental extremes on cholera time varying reproduction number in Nigeria.PLOS global public health · 2022Article
- Navigating the storm: Ethical consideration to climate justice and sustainable health equity in Africa.The journal of climate change and healthArticle
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 4 institutions in 4 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundTemperature and precipitation are known to affect Vibrio cholerae outbreaks. Despite this, the impact of drought on outbreaks has been largely understudied. Africa is both drought and cholera prone and more research is needed in Africa to understand cholera dynamics in relation to drought.
methodsHere, we analyse a range of environmental and socioeconomic covariates and fit generalised linear models to publicly available national data, to test for associations with several indices of drought and make cholera outbreak projections to 2070 under three scenarios of global change, reflecting varying trajectories of CO
resultsThe best-fit model implies that drought is a significant risk factor for African cholera outbreaks, alongside positive effects of population, temperature and poverty and a negative effect of freshwater withdrawal. The projections show that following stringent emissions pathways and expanding sustainable development may reduce cholera outbreak occurrence in Africa, although these changes were spatially heterogeneous.
conclusionsDespite an effect of drought in explaining recent cholera outbreaks, future projections highlighted the potential for sustainable development gains to offset drought-related impacts on cholera risk. Future work should build on this research investigating the impacts of drought on cholera on a finer spatial scale and potential non-linear relationships, especially in high-burden countries which saw little cholera change in the scenario analysis.
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