Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34806056›Full record

SynthesisThe Lancet. Microbe2022

Neutralising antibody titres as predictors of protection against SARS-CoV-2 variants and the impact of boosting: a meta-analysis.

Deborah Cromer, Megan Steain, Arnold Reynaldi, Timothy E Schlub, Adam K Wheatley, Jennifer A Juno, Stephen J Kent, James A Triccas, David S Khoury, Miles P Davenport

Open access · goldAbstract readMeta-Analysis
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Synthesis in The Lancet. Microbe, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 376 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
376citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
34.7field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

376 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 600 citations in OpenAlex.

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  8. Stochastic interventional approach to assessing immune correlates of protection: Application to the COVE messenger RNA-1273 vaccine trial.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2023
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  16. Distinct CD8iScience · 2026
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316 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.

Deborah CromerKirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Megan SteainSydney Institute of Infectious Diseases and Charles Perkins Centre, The University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW, Australia.
Arnold ReynaldiKirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Timothy E SchlubKirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Adam K WheatleyDepartment of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
Jennifer A JunoDepartment of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
Stephen J KentDepartment of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
James A TriccasSydney Institute of Infectious Diseases and Charles Perkins Centre, The University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW, Australia.
David S KhouryKirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Miles P DavenportKirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
UNSW Sydney · AUUniversity of Melbourne · AUUniversity of Sydney · AUPeter Doherty Institute · AU

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundSeveral SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been identified that partly escape serum neutralisation elicited by current vaccines. Studies have also shown that vaccines demonstrate reduced protection against symptomatic infection with SARS-CoV-2 variants. We explored whether in-vitro neutralisation titres remain predictive of vaccine protection from infection with SARS-CoV-2 variants.

methodsIn this meta-analysis, we analysed published data from 24 identified studies on in-vitro neutralisation and clinical protection to understand the loss of neutralisation to existing SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern. We integrated the results of this analysis into our existing statistical model relating in-vitro neutralisation to protection (parameterised on data from ancestral virus infection) to estimate vaccine efficacy against SARS-CoV-2 variants. We also analysed data on boosting of vaccine responses and use the model to predict the impact of booster vaccination on protection against SARS-CoV-2 variants.

findingsThe neutralising activity against the ancestral SARS-CoV-2 was highly predictive of neutralisation of variants of concern. Decreases in neutralisation titre to the alpha (1·6-fold), beta (8·8-fold), gamma (3·5-fold), and delta (3·9-fold) variants (compared to the ancestral virus) were not significantly different between different vaccines. Neutralisation remained strongly correlated with protection from symptomatic infection with SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (

interpretationIn-vitro neutralisation titres remain a correlate of protection from SARS-CoV-2 variants and modelling of the effects of waning immunity predicts a loss of protection to the variants after vaccination. However, booster vaccination with current vaccines should enable higher neutralisation to SARS-CoV-2 variants than is achieved with primary vaccination, which is predicted to provide robust protection from severe infection outcomes with the current SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern, at least in the medium term.

fundingThe National Health and Medical Research Council (Australia), the Medical Research Future Fund (Australia), and the Victorian Government.

Indexed as

COVID-19SARS-CoV-2Antibodies, NeutralizingAntibodies, ViralCOVID-19 VaccinesHumansAntibodies, NeutralizingAntibodies, ViralCOVID-19 Vaccines

Identifiers

PMID34806056
PMCPMC8592563
OpenAlexW3212447088

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.