ArticleRoyal Society open science2021
Early intervention is the key to success in COVID-19 control.
Article in Royal Society open science, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 33 citations in OpenAlex.
- Cost-effectiveness of preventive COVID-19 interventions: a systematic review and network meta-analysis of comparative economic evaluation studies based on real-world data.Journal of global health · 2025Pooled it
- International travel-related control measures to contain the COVID-19 pandemic: a rapid review.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2021Pooled it
- When one size does not fit all - New Zealand perspectives on the International Health Regulations during the COVID-19 pandemic.Globalization and health · 2025Article
- Examining the severity of illness in pregnant women infected with COVID-19 during three waves of the disease in Ahvaz, Iran.BMC pregnancy and childbirth · 2025Observational
- Modelling immunity gaps to quantify infection resurgences.Royal Society open science · 2025Article
- Preparing for the next pandemic: insights from Aotearoa New Zealand's Covid-19 response.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2025Review
- Topological analysis of COVID-19 wave patterns and policy responses in Europe.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Is SARS-CoV-2 elimination or mitigation best? Regional and disease characteristics determine the recommended strategy.Royal Society open science · 2024Article
- Impact of the COVID-19 related border restrictions on influenza and other common respiratory viral infections in New Zealand.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2024Article
- The impact of spatial connectivity on NPIs effectiveness.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Stigmatising and Racialising COVID-19: Asian People's Experience in New Zealand.Journal of racial and ethnic health disparities · 2023Article
- Comparing COVID-19 pandemic health responses in two high-income island nations: Iceland and New Zealand.Scandinavian journal of public health · 2023Review
- A general framework for optimising cost-effectiveness of pandemic response under partial intervention measures.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Minimising the use of costly control measures in an epidemic elimination strategy: A simple mathematical model.Mathematical biosciences · 2022Article
- The impact of social welfare and COVID-19 stringency on the perceived utility of food apps: A hybrid MCDM approach.Socio-economic planning sciences · 2022Article
- Exploring the impact of COVID-19 on mobile dating: Critical avenues for research.Social and personality psychology compass · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
8 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
New Zealand responded to the COVID-19 pandemic with a combination of border restrictions and an Alert Level (AL) system that included strict stay-at-home orders. These interventions were successful in containing an outbreak and ultimately eliminating community transmission of COVID-19 in June 2020. The timing of interventions is crucial to their success. Delaying interventions may reduce their effectiveness and mean that they need to be maintained for a longer period. We use a stochastic branching process model of COVID-19 transmission and control to simulate the epidemic trajectory in New Zealand's March-April 2020 outbreak and the effect of its interventions. We calculate key measures, including the number of reported cases and deaths, and the probability of elimination within a specified time frame. By comparing these measures under alternative timings of interventions, we show that changing the timing of AL4 (the strictest level of restrictions) has a far greater impact than the timing of border measures. Delaying AL4 restrictions results in considerably worse outcomes. Implementing border measures alone, without AL4 restrictions, is insufficient to control the outbreak. We conclude that the early introduction of stay-at-home orders was crucial in reducing the number of cases and deaths, enabling elimination.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.