ArticleStatistics in biosciences2022
A Model-Based Approach to Assess Epidemic Risk.
Article in Statistics in biosciences, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Prediction of SARS-CoV-2 infection cases based on the meta-SEIRS model.Epidemiology and infection · 2024Article
- Complex network analysis techniques for the early detection of the outbreak of pandemics transmitted through air traffic.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- A Model-Based Approach to Assess Epidemic Risk.Statistics in biosciences · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
We study how international flights can facilitate the spread of an epidemic to a worldwide scale. We combine an infrastructure network of flight connections with a population density dataset to derive the mobility network, and then we define an epidemic framework to model the spread of the disease. Our approach combines a compartmental SEIRS model with a graph diffusion model to capture the clusteredness of the distribution of the population. The resulting model is characterised by the dynamics of a metapopulation SEIRS, with amplification or reduction of the infection rate which is determined also by the mobility of individuals. We use simulations to characterise and study a variety of realistic scenarios that resemble the recent spread of COVID-19. Crucially, we define a formal framework that can be used to design epidemic mitigation strategies: we propose an optimisation approach based on genetic algorithms that can be used to identify an optimal airport closure strategy, and that can be employed to aid decision making for the mitigation of the epidemic, in a timely manner.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.