ArticlePhilosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences2022
Calibrating COVID-19 susceptible-exposed-infected-removed models with time-varying effectivecontact rates.
Article in Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.
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17 citing papers in PubMed.
- Detecting changepoints in dynamical systems: Modeling time-varying transmission of seasonal influenza.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Model-based clustering of time-dependent observations with common structural changes.Statistics and computing · 2026Article
- What Lessons can Be Learned From the Management of the COVID-19 Pandemic?International journal of public health · 2025Review
- Time-varying reproduction number estimation: fusing compartmental models with generalized additive models.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- Epidemic graph diagrams as analytics for epidemic control in the data-rich era.Nature communications · 2023Article
- Impact of meteorological and demographic factors on the influenza epidemic in Japan: a large observational database study.Scientific reports · 2023Observational
- Anchoring the mean generation time in the SEIR to mitigate biases in ℜRoyal Society open science · 2023Article
- Validation framework for epidemiological models with application to COVID-19 models.PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
- A model of behavioural response to risk accurately predicts the statistical distribution of COVID-19 infection and reproduction numbers.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Hybrid prediction of infections and deaths due to COVID-19 in two Colombian data series.PloS one · 2023Article
- Article
- Attention based parameter estimation and states forecasting of COVID-19 pandemic using modified SIQRD Model.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2022Article
- A COVID-19 model incorporating variants, vaccination, waning immunity, and population behavior.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Assessing epidemic curves for evidence of superspreading.Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society) · 2022Article
- Inferring the effective reproductive number from deterministic and semi-deterministic compartmental models using incidence and mobility data.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Propagation dynamics and control policies of COVID-19 pandemic at early stages: Implications on future resurgence response.Chaos (Woodbury, N.Y.) · 2022Article
- Data science approaches to infectious disease surveillance.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2022Review
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6 authors.
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Abstract
We describe the population-based susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) model developed by the Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group (IEMAG), which advises the Irish government on COVID-19 responses. The model assumes a time-varying effective contact rate (equivalently, a time-varying reproduction number) to model the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions. A crucial technical challenge in applying such models is their accurate calibration to observed data, e.g. to the daily number of confirmed new cases, as the history of the disease strongly affects predictions of future scenarios. We demonstrate an approach based on inversion of the SEIR equations in conjunction with statistical modelling and spline-fitting of the data to produce a robust methodology for calibration of a wide class of models of this type. This article is part of the theme issue 'Data science approaches to infectious disease surveillance'.
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