ArticleInternational journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases2022
Critical timing and extent of public health interventions to control outbreaks dominated by SARS-CoV-2 variants in Australia: a mathematical modelling study.
Article in International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- Development of two-dimension epidemic prediction model.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Spatio-Temporal Modelling and Forecasting of the Prolonged Measles Outbreak in Romania: Insights and Challenges.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Dynamics of an SVEIR transmission model with protection awareness and two strains.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Epidemiological feature analysis of SVEIR model with control strategy and variant evolution.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- Monitoring an Emergent Pathogen at Low Incidence in Wastewater Using qPCR: Mpox in Switzerland.Food and environmental virology · 2024Review
- Antibody escape, the risk of serotype formation, and rapid immune waning: Modeling the implications of SARS-CoV-2 immune evasion.PloS one · 2023Article
- Use and design of public green spaces in Serbian cities during the COVID-19 pandemic.Habitat international · 2022Article
- The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 cases in South Australia and Victoria.Australian and New Zealand journal of public health · 2022Article
- Lessons from SARS-CoV-2 in India: A data-driven framework for pandemic resilience.Science advances · 2022Article
- Cost-effectiveness analysis of BNT162b2 COVID-19 booster vaccination in the United States.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2022Article
- Early and Subsequent Epidemic Characteristics of COVID-19 and Their Impact on the Epidemic Size in Ethiopia.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Automated artificial intelligence-enabled proactive preparedness real-time system for accurate prediction of COVID-19 infections- Performance evaluation.Frontiers in medicine · 2022Article
- Cross fertilisation of Public Health and Translational Research.Journal of the Indian Institute of Science · 2022Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivesThe exact characteristics of a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak that trigger public health interventions are poorly defined. The aim of this study was to assess the critical timing and extent of public health interventions to contain COVID-19 outbreaks in Australia.
methodsA practical model was developed using existing epidemic data in Australia. The effective combinations of public health interventions and the critical number of daily cases for intervention commencement under various scenarios of changes in transmissibility of new variants and vaccination coverage were quantified.
resultsIn the past COVID-19 outbreaks in four Australian states, the number of reported cases on the day that interventions commenced strongly predicted the size and duration of the outbreaks. In the early phase of an outbreak, containing a wildtype-dominant epidemic to a low level (≤10 cases/day) would require effective combinations of social distancing and face mask use interventions to be commenced before the number of daily reported cases reaches six. Containing an Alpha-dominant epidemic would require more stringent interventions that commence earlier. For the Delta variant, public health interventions alone would not contain the epidemic unless the vaccination coverage was ≥70%.
conclusionsThis study highlights the importance of early and decisive action in the initial phase of an outbreak. Vaccination is essential for containing variants.
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