ArticleGlobal change biology2022
Plague risk in the western United States over seven decades of environmental change.
Article in Global change biology, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers.
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Who cites it
20 citing papers in PubMed.
- Article
- Environmental and Host Blood Interactions ShapePathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- An adenoviral-vectored vaccine protects mice against aerosol challenge with Yersinia pestis.Molecular therapy : the journal of the American Society of Gene Therapy · 2026Article
- Assessing plague risk across seven decades of environmental change in Inner Mongolia, China: An interpretable machine learning.iScience · 2026Article
- Evolutionary trends of plague research from 2016 to 2025: A bibliometric analysis.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Ecologic Investigative Strategies to Determine Human Plague Exposure Sites, United States, 1991-2018.Emerging infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Study on the differentiated impact of climate change on plague epidemics in Northern and Southern China, 1912-1949.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Decadal predictions of future habitat favourability of the European green crab (Hydrobiologia · 2026Article
- Soil characteristics associated with historical commensal rodent plague foci in Yunnan Province, China.Frontiers in veterinary science · 2026Article
- Plagued by the Past, Pressed by the Present: A One Health Perspective onBiomedicines · 2025Review
- Silent Carriers: The Role of Rodents in the Emergence of Zoonotic Bacterial Threats.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Review
- Approaches for the Inactivation ofApplied biosafety : journal of the American Biological Safety Association · 2024Article
- Madagascar's Plague: One Health Research Aims to Slow Its Spread.Environmental health perspectives · 2024Article
- Impact of Sanitation on Rodent Pullulation and Plague Status in an Informal Settlement on the Outskirts of Mahajanga (Madagascar).Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Ecologic, Geoclimatic, and Genomic Factors Modulating Plague Epidemics in Primary Natural Focus, Brazil.Emerging infectious diseases · 2024Article
- No evidence for persistent natural plague reservoirs in historical and modern Europe.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2022Article
- Climate Change Drives the Transmission and Spread of Vector-Borne Diseases: An Ecological Perspective.Biology · 2022Article
- Article
- Plague risk in the western United States over seven decades of environmental change.Global change biology · 2022Article
- Exploring and Mitigating Plague for One Health Purposes.Current tropical medicine reports · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
After several pandemics over the last two millennia, the wildlife reservoirs of plague (Yersinia pestis) now persist around the world, including in the western United States. Routine surveillance in this region has generated comprehensive records of human cases and animal seroprevalence, creating a unique opportunity to test how plague reservoirs are responding to environmental change. Here, we test whether animal and human data suggest that plague reservoirs and spillover risk have shifted since 1950. To do so, we develop a new method for detecting the impact of climate change on infectious disease distributions, capable of disentangling long-term trends (signal) and interannual variation in both weather and sampling (noise). We find that plague foci are associated with high-elevation rodent communities, and soil biochemistry may play a key role in the geography of long-term persistence. In addition, we find that human cases are concentrated only in a small subset of endemic areas, and that spillover events are driven by higher rodent species richness (the amplification hypothesis) and climatic anomalies (the trophic cascade hypothesis). Using our detection model, we find that due to the changing climate, rodent communities at high elevations have become more conducive to the establishment of plague reservoirs-with suitability increasing up to 40% in some places-and that spillover risk to humans at mid-elevations has increased as well, although more gradually. These results highlight opportunities for deeper investigation of plague ecology, the value of integrative surveillance for infectious disease geography, and the need for further research into ongoing climate change impacts.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.