Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34792857›Full record

Observational studyCNS neuroscience & therapeutics2022

Automated machine learning-based model predicts postoperative delirium using readily extractable perioperative collected electronic data.

Xiao-Yi Hu, He Liu, Xue Zhao, Xun Sun, Jian Zhou, Xing Gao, Hui-Lian Guan, Yang Zhou, Qiu Zhao, Yuan Han and 1 more

Open access · goldAbstract readObservational Study
In one paragraph

Observational study in CNS neuroscience & therapeutics, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 37 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
37citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
7.0field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

37 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 65 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.

Xiao-Yi Hu *Department of Anesthesiology, The Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University, Jiangsu Province, Xuzhou City, China.
He Liu *Department of Anesthesiology, The Affiliated Huzhou Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Huzhou Central Hospital, Zhejiang Province, Huzhou City, China.
Xue ZhaoDepartment of Anesthesiology, The Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University, Jiangsu Province, Xuzhou City, China.
Xun SunDepartment of Anesthesiology, The Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University, Jiangsu Province, Xuzhou City, China.
Jian ZhouDepartment of Anesthesiology, The Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University, Jiangsu Province, Xuzhou City, China.
Xing GaoJiangsu Province Key Laboratory of Anesthesiology & NMPA Key Laboratory for Research and Evaluation of Narcotic and Psychotropic Drugs, Xuzhou Medical University, Jiangsu Province, Xuzhou City, China.
Hui-Lian GuanJiangsu Province Key Laboratory of Anesthesiology & NMPA Key Laboratory for Research and Evaluation of Narcotic and Psychotropic Drugs, Xuzhou Medical University, Jiangsu Province, Xuzhou City, China.
Yang ZhouJiangsu Province Key Laboratory of Anesthesiology & NMPA Key Laboratory for Research and Evaluation of Narcotic and Psychotropic Drugs, Xuzhou Medical University, Jiangsu Province, Xuzhou City, China.
Qiu ZhaoDepartment of Anesthesiology, The Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University, Jiangsu Province, Xuzhou City, China.
Yuan HanDepartment of Anesthesiology, Eye & ENT Hospital of Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
Jun-Li CaoDepartment of Anesthesiology, The Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University, Jiangsu Province, Xuzhou City, China.ORCID 0000-0003-1868-9603
Xuzhou Medical College · CNEye & ENT Hospital of Fudan University · CNHuzhou Central Hospital · CN

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivePostoperative delirium (POD) is a common postoperative complication that is relevant to poor outcomes. Therefore, it is critical to find effective methods to identify patients with high risk of POD rapidly. Creating a fully automated score based on an automated machine-learning algorithm may be a method to predict the incidence of POD quickly. MATERIALS AND

methodsThis is the secondary analysis of an observational study, including 531 surgical patients who underwent general anesthesia. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) was used to screen essential features associated with POD. Finally, eight features (age, intraoperative blood loss, anesthesia duration, extubation time, intensive care unit [ICU] admission, mini-mental state examination score [MMSE], Charlson comorbidity index [CCI], postoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio [NLR]) were used to established models. Four models, logistic regression, random forest, extreme gradient boosted trees, and support vector machines, were built in a training set (70% of participants) and evaluated in the remaining testing sample (30% of participants). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to explore independent risk factors for POD further.

resultsModel 1 (logistic regression model) was found to outperform other classifier models in testing data (area under the curve [AUC] of 80.44%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 72.24%-88.64%) and achieve the lowest Brier Score as well. These variables including age (OR = 1.054, 95%CI: 1.017~1.093), extubation time (OR = 1.027, 95%CI: 1.012~1.044), ICU admission (OR = 2.238, 95%CI: 1.313~3.793), MMSE (OR = 0.929, 95%CI: 0.876~0.984), CCI (OR = 1.197, 95%CI: 1.038~1.384), and postoperative NLR (OR = 1.029, 95%CI: 1.002~1.057) were independent risk factors for POD in this study.

conclusionsWe have built and validated a high-performing algorithm to demonstrate the extent to which patient risk changes of POD during the perioperative period, thus leading to a rational therapeutic choice.

Indexed as

DeliriumElectronicsHumansMachine LearningPostoperative ComplicationsRetrospective StudiesRisk Factorsdeliriummachine learningmodel predictionnomogrampostoperative

Identifiers

PMID34792857
PMCPMC8928919
OpenAlexW3212914717

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.