ArticlePloS one2021
Evaluation of the United States COVID-19 vaccine allocation strategy.
Article in PloS one, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.
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Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed.
- Optimal strategies for fair vaccine allocation: integrating non-pharmaceutical interventions, regional quarantine, and social challenges in epidemic control.Theory in biosciences = Theorie in den Biowissenschaften · 2026Article
- The impact of risk prioritization in COVID-19 vaccination in Belgium on hospital and intensive care unit admissions.European journal of public health · 2026Article
- Divide and recombine approaches for fitting logistic regression to large-scale health surveillance data: application to diabetes risk prediction in BRFSS.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Governance in Crisis: A Mixed-Methods Analysis of Global Health Governance During COVID-19.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2025Review
- Learning from the COVID-19 pandemic: A systematic review of mathematical vaccine prioritization models.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Review
- Model-informed optimal allocation of limited resources to mitigate infectious disease outbreaks in societies at war.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2024Article
- Incorporating social determinants of health into transmission modeling of COVID-19 vaccine in the US: a scoping review.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2024Article
- Learning from the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review of mathematical vaccine prioritization models.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Evaluating vaccine allocation strategies using simulation-assisted causal modeling.Patterns (New York, N.Y.) · 2023Article
- Study of optimal vaccination strategies for early COVID-19 pandemic using an age-structured mathematical model: A case study of the USA.Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE · 2023Article
- Comparative performance of between-population vaccine allocation strategies with applications for emerging pandemics.Vaccine · 2023Article
- Mathematical Modeling of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Wave under Vaccination Effects.Computation (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Optimal vaccination at high reproductive numbers: sharp transitions and counterintuitive allocations.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2022Article
- Incorporating the mutational landscape of SARS-COV-2 variants and case-dependent vaccination rates into epidemic models.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2022Article
- Vaccine efficacy and SARS-CoV-2 control in California and U.S. during the session 2020-2026: A modeling study.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2022Article
- The role of childrens' vaccination for COVID-19-Pareto-optimal allocations of vaccines.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Booster Vaccination Strategies for "Living With COVID-19".Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundAnticipating an initial shortage of vaccines for COVID-19, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) in the United States developed priority vaccine allocations for specific demographic groups in the population. This study evaluates the performance of the CDC vaccine allocation strategy with respect to multiple potentially competing vaccination goals (minimizing mortality, cases, infections, and years of life lost (YLL)), under the same framework as the CDC allocation: four priority vaccination groups and population demographics stratified by age, comorbidities, occupation and living condition (congested or non-congested). METHODS AND
findingsWe developed a compartmental disease model that incorporates key elements of the current pandemic including age-varying susceptibility to infection, age-varying clinical fraction, an active case-count dependent social distancing level, and time-varying infectivity (accounting for the emergence of more infectious virus strains). The CDC allocation strategy is compared to all other possibly optimal allocations that stagger vaccine roll-out in up to four phases (17.5 million strategies). The CDC allocation strategy performed well in all vaccination goals but never optimally. Under the developed model, the CDC allocation deviated from the optimal allocations by small amounts, with 0.19% more deaths, 4.0% more cases, 4.07% more infections, and 0.97% higher YLL, than the respective optimal strategies. The CDC decision to not prioritize the vaccination of individuals under the age of 16 was optimal, as was the prioritization of health-care workers and other essential workers over non-essential workers. Finally, a higher prioritization of individuals with comorbidities in all age groups improved outcomes compared to the CDC allocation.
conclusionThe developed approach can be used to inform the design of future vaccine allocation strategies in the United States, or adapted for use by other countries seeking to optimize the effectiveness of their vaccine allocation strategies.
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