ArticleInfection and drug resistance2021
Estimating the Effects of the COVID-19 Outbreak on the Reductions in Tuberculosis Cases and the Epidemiological Trends in China: A Causal Impact Analysis.
Article in Infection and drug resistance, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers.
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Who cites it
25 citing papers in PubMed.
- Early warning of hepatitis B epidemics in Henan Province, China, from 2014 to 2023 based on Baidu Index and Bayesian Structural Time Series model.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2026Article
- Recrudescence of tuberculosis in the state of São Paulo post-COVID-19: trends and clusters.Revista de saude publica · 2026Article
- Forecasting Acute Hemorrhagic Conjunctivitis Incidence in Henan, China: A Comparative Study of Seasonal Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models.Risk management and healthcare policy · 2026Article
- Article
- Stroke Mortality in Kazakhstan: Comparison of National Health Records to Global Burden of Disease Study.JACC. Asia · 2025Article
- Forecasting tuberculosis epidemics using an autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average model: a 17-year time series analysis.Journal of global health · 2025Article
- Tuberculosis Trends in the Post-COVID-19 Era: Is It Going to be a Global Concern?Health science reports · 2025Article
- Evaluation of the impact of COVID-19 on hepatitis B in Henan Province and its epidemic trend based on Bayesian structured time series model.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Long-term impact of COVID-19-related nonpharmaceutical interventions on tuberculosis: an interrupted time series analysis using Bayesian method.Journal of global health · 2025Article
- Long- and short-run asymmetric impacts of climate variation on tuberculosis based on a time series study.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Predicting the epidemiological trend of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis in China using Bayesian structural time-series model.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Regional differences of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex infection and multidrug resistance epidemic in Luoyang.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Evaluating the long-term impact of COVID-19-associated public health interventions on zoonotic and vector-borne diseases in China: an interrupted time series analysis.Journal of translational medicine · 2024Article
- The global impact of COVID-19 on tuberculosis: A thematic scoping review, 2020-2023.PLOS global public health · 2024Article
- Comparison of ARIMA and Bayesian Structural Time Series Models for Predicting the Trend of Syphilis Epidemic in Jiangsu Province.Infection and drug resistance · 2024Article
- Relationship between hospitalization from cannabis usage and pulmonary tuberculosis in Thailand from 2017 to 2022.PloS one · 2024Article
- Impact of COVID-19 on epidemic trend of hepatitis C in Henan Province assessed by interrupted time series analysis.BMC infectious diseases · 2023Article
- The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on reported tuberculosis incidence and mortality in China: An interrupted time series analysis.Journal of global health · 2023Article
- Immediate and long-term changes in infectious diseases in China at the "First-level-response", "Normalized-control" and "Dynamic-COVID-zero" stages from 2020 to 2022: a multistage interrupted-time-series-analysis.BMC public health · 2023Article
- Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2021) in an urban community of Bangladesh.PLOS global public health · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectiveCOVID-19 may have a demonstrable influence on disease patterns. However, it remained unknown how tuberculosis (TB) epidemics are impacted by the COVID-19 outbreak. The purposes of this study are to evaluate the impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak on the decreases in the TB case notifications and to forecast the epidemiological trends in China.
methodsThe monthly TB incidents from January 2005 to December 2020 were taken. Then, we investigated the causal impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the TB case reductions using intervention analysis under the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Next, we split the observed values into different training and testing horizons to validate the forecasting performance of the BSTS method.
resultsThe TB incidence was falling during 2005-2020, with an average annual percentage change of -3.186 (95% confidence interval [CI] -4.083 to -2.281), and showed a peak in March-April and a trough in January-February per year. The BSTS method assessed a monthly average reduction of 14% (95% CI 3.8% to 24%) in the TB case notifications from January-December 2020 owing to COVID-19 (probability of causal effect=99.684%,
conclusionCOVID-19 can cause medium- and longer-term consequences for the TB epidemics and the BSTS model has the potential to forecast the epidemiological trends of the TB incidence, which can be recommended as an automated application for public health policymaking in China. Considering the slow downward trend in the TB incidence, additional measures are required to accelerate the progress of the End TB Strategy.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.