Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34784371›Full record

ArticlePLoS neglected tropical diseases2021

Past and future epidemic potential of chikungunya virus in Australia.

Timothy White, Gina Mincham, Brian L Montgomery, Cassie C Jansen, Xiaodong Huang, Craig R Williams, Robert L P Flower, Helen M Faddy, Francesca D Frentiu, Elvina Viennet

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Timothy WhiteCentre for Immunology and Infection Control, School of Biomedical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Kelvin Grove, Queensland, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-7755-9852
Gina MinchamResearch and Innovation Services, University of South Australia, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.ORCID 0000-0003-2337-4753
Brian L MontgomeryMetro South Public Health Unit, Metro South Hospital and Health Service, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-8707-6694
Cassie C JansenCommunicable Diseases Branch, Queensland Department of Health, Herston, Queensland, Australia.
Xiaodong HuangCentre for Immunology and Infection Control, School of Biomedical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Kelvin Grove, Queensland, Australia.
Craig R WilliamsUniSA Clinical & Health Sciences, University of South Australia, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-4758-1506
Robert L P FlowerCentre for Immunology and Infection Control, School of Biomedical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Kelvin Grove, Queensland, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-7257-1844
Helen M FaddyCentre for Immunology and Infection Control, School of Biomedical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Kelvin Grove, Queensland, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-3446-8248
Francesca D FrentiuCentre for Immunology and Infection Control, School of Biomedical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Kelvin Grove, Queensland, Australia.ORCID 0000-0001-8628-4216
Elvina ViennetCentre for Immunology and Infection Control, School of Biomedical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Kelvin Grove, Queensland, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-1418-1426

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundAustralia is theoretically at risk of epidemic chikungunya virus (CHIKV) activity as the principal vectors are present on the mainland Aedes aegypti) and some islands of the Torres Strait (Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus). Both vectors are highly invasive and adapted to urban environments with a capacity to expand their distributions into south-east Queensland and other states in Australia. We sought to estimate the epidemic potential of CHIKV, which is not currently endemic in Australia, by considering exclusively transmission by the established vector in Australia, Ae. aegypti, due to the historical relevance and anthropophilic nature of the vector. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL

findingsWe estimated the historical (1995-2019) epidemic potential of CHIKV in eleven Australian locations, including the Torres Strait, using a basic reproduction number equation. We found that the main urban centres of Northern Australia could sustain an epidemic of CHIKV. We then estimated future trends in epidemic potential for the main centres for the years 2020 to 2029. We also conducted uncertainty and sensitivity analyses on the variables comprising the basic reproduction number and found high sensitivity to mosquito population size, human population size, impact of vector control and human infectious period. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: By estimating the epidemic potential for CHIKV transmission on mainland Australia and the Torres Strait, we identified key areas of focus for controlling vector populations and reducing human exposure. As the epidemic potential of the virus is estimated to rise towards 2029, a greater focus on control and prevention measures should be implemented in at-risk locations.

Indexed as

AedesAnimalsAustraliaBayes TheoremChikungunya FeverChikungunya virusEpidemicsFemaleHumansMaleMosquito Vectors

Identifiers

PMID34784371
PMCPMC8631637

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.