ArticleJournal of clinical medicine2021
Projections of Primary and Revision Shoulder Arthroplasty until 2040: Facing a Massive Rise in Fracture-Related Procedures.
Article in Journal of clinical medicine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 28 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
28 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Long-term glenoid loosening, radiological and clinical outcomes in cemented all-polyethylene anatomic total shoulder arthroplasty: a systematic review and meta-analysis.International orthopaedics · 2026Pooled it
- Exploring the role of hemiarthroplasty in revision shoulder arthroplasty: a systematic review.Journal of orthopaedics and traumatology : official journal of the Italian Society of Orthopaedics and Traumatology · 2025Pooled it
- Whether the Indications for Reverse Shoulder Arthroplasty Should Continue to Be Expanded? A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Orthopaedic surgery · 2025Pooled it
- A systematic review of crosswalks for converting patient-reported outcome measure scores in hip, knee, and shoulder replacement surgery.Acta orthopaedica · 2024Pooled it
- International trends in shoulder replacement: a meta-analysis from 11 public joint registers.Acta orthopaedica · 2024Pooled it
- Pre-operative deltoid fatty infiltration as a predictor of outcomes after reverse total shoulder arthroplasty: a systematic review.JSES reviews, reports, and techniques · 2026Review
- Hemophilia increases risk of bleeding and thromboembolism after total shoulder arthroplasty.Clinics in shoulder and elbow · 2026Article
- Intravenous versus oral tranexamic acid in shoulder arthroplasty.Archives of orthopaedic and trauma surgery · 2026Article
- Validation of a 3D planning tool for glenoid bone loss evaluation in revision anatomic total shoulder arthroplasty.BMC musculoskeletal disorders · 2026Article
- Shoulder arthroplasty in the osteoporotic patient: do bisphosphonates make a difference?JSES international · 2026Article
- Burden and Temporal Trends of Osteoarthritis in Germany from 1990 to 2021, with Projections to 2041: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study.Orthopedic research and reviews · 2026Article
- Proximal Humerus Fractures - A Contemporary Narrative Review of Management Strategies.Orthopedic reviews · 2026Article
- Application of Augmented Reality in Reverse Total Shoulder Arthroplasty: A Systematic Review.Journal of clinical medicine · 2025Review
- A review of patient matched implants for shoulder arthroplasty.JSES international · 2025Review
- Article
- Early results of reverse total shoulder arthroplasty using a patient-specific baseplate to address severe glenoid deficiency.Shoulder & elbow · 2024Article
- Functionality, complications, and survivorship of total shoulder arthroplasty in patients under 60 years old.Journal of orthopaedics · 2024Article
- The Future of Total Elbow Arthroplasty: A Statistical Forecast Model for Germany.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Pectoralis Major Transfer For Anterior Recurrent Dislocation of Reverse Total Shoulder Arthroplasty: A Case Report.Journal of orthopaedic case reports · 2024Article
- Reverse total shoulder replacement versus anatomical total shoulder replacement for osteoarthritis: population based cohort study using data from the National Joint Registry and Hospital Episode Statistics for England.BMJ (Clinical research ed.) · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Although the demand for shoulder arthroplasties has reached its highest number worldwide, there remains a lack of epidemiologic data regarding recent and future trends. In this study, data for all shoulder arthroplasties (hemiarthroplasty, reverse/anatomic shoulder arthroplasty) from the nationwide inpatient statistics of Germany (2010-2019) and population forecasts until 2040 were gathered. A Poisson and a negative binomial approach using monotone B-splines were modeled for all types of prostheses to project the annual number and incidence of primary and revision arthroplasty. Additionally, trends in main indicators were also gathered and expected changes were calculated. Overall, the number of primary shoulder replacements is set to increase significantly by 2040, reaching at least 37,000 (95% CI 32,000-44,000) procedures per year. This trend is mainly attributable to an about 10-fold increased use of fracture-related reverse shoulder arthroplasty in patients over 80 years of age, although the number of procedures in younger patients will also rise substantially. In contrast, hemiarthroplasties will significantly decrease. The number of revision procedures is projected to increase subsequently, although the revision burden is forecast to decline. Using these country-specific projection approaches, a massive increase of primary and revision shoulder arthroplasties is expected by 2040, mainly due to a rising number of fracture-related procedures. These growth rates are substantially higher than those from hip or knee arthroplasty. As these trends are similar in most Western countries, this draws attention to the international issue, of: if healthcare systems will be able to allocate human and financial resources adequately, and if future research and fracture-prevention programs may help to temper this rising burden in the upcoming decades.
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