Modeling coronavirus spike protein dynamics: implications for immunogenicity and immune escape.

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is a global public health emergency requiring urgent development of efficacious vaccines. While concentrated research efforts have focused primarily on antibody-based vaccines that neutralize SARS-CoV-2, and several first-generation vaccines have either been approved or received emergency use authorization, it is forecasted that COVID-19 will become an endemic disease requiring updated second-generation vaccines. The SARS-CoV-2 surface spike (S) glycoprotein represents a prime target for vaccine development because antibodies that block viral attachment and entry, i.e., neutralizing antibodies, bind almost exclusively to the receptor-binding domain. Here, we develop computational models for a large subset of S proteins associated with SARS-CoV-2, implemented through coarse-grained elastic network models and normal mode analysis. We then analyze local protein domain dynamics of the S protein systems and their thermal stability to characterize structural and dynamical variability among them. These results are compared against existing experimental data and used to elucidate the impact and mechanisms of SARS-CoV-2 S protein mutations and their associated antibody binding behavior. We construct a SARS-CoV-2 antigenic map and offer predictions about the neutralization capabilities of antibody and S mutant combinations based on protein dynamic signatures. We then compare SARS-CoV-2 S protein dynamics to SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV S proteins to investigate differing antibody binding and cellular fusion mechanisms that may explain the high transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2. The outbreaks associated with SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, and SARS-CoV-2 over the last two decades suggest that the threat presented by coronaviruses is ever-changing and long term. Our results provide insights into the dynamics-driven mechanisms of immunogenicity associated with coronavirus S proteins and present a new, to our knowledge, approach to characterize and screen potential mutant candidates for immunogen design, as well as to characterize emerging natural variants that may escape vaccine-induced antibody responses.