ArticleBMC public health2021
The association between first and second wave COVID-19 mortality in Italy.
Article in BMC public health, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers.
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Who cites it
15 citing papers in PubMed.
- Contrasting pre-vaccine COVID-19 waves in Italy through functional data analysis.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Article
- Vaccination status and disease severity of COVID-19 in different phases of the pandemic.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2024Article
- Monitoring the Status of Multi-Wave Omicron Variant Outbreaks - 71 Countries, 2021-2023.China CDC weekly · 2024Article
- The Behaviour of IL-6 and Its Soluble Receptor Complex during Different Waves of the COVID-19 Pandemic.Life (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Disease severity of COVID-19 in different phases of the pandemic: Do healthcare workers have better outcomes?Vaccine: X · 2023Article
- COVID-19 vaccination and governance in the case of low, middle and high-income countries.BMC public health · 2023Article
- One hundred ECMO retrivals before and during the Covid-19 pandemic: an observational study.Intensive & critical care nursing · 2023Observational
- Identifying age- and sex-specific COVID-19 mortality trends over time in six countries.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2023Article
- Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on outpatient visit volume in cancer patients: Results of COMETA multicenter retrospective observational study.Frontiers in public health · 2023Observational
- Excess mortality and protected areas during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from Italian municipalities.Health policy (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2022Article
- The other side of the crisis: organizational flexibility in balancing Covid-19 and non-Covid-19 health-care services.BMC health services research · 2022Article
- Article
- Seroprevalence Survey of Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies in a Population of Emilia-Romagna Region, Northern Italy.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Overview of dreadful consequences of SARS-CoV-2 invasion in Italy from March 2020 to March 2022.Bulletin of the National Research Centre · 2022Review
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThe relation between the magnitude of successive waves of the COVID-19 outbreak within the same communities could be useful in predicting the scope of new outbreaks.
methodsWe investigated the extent to which COVID-19 mortality in Italy during the second wave was related to first wave mortality within the same provinces. We compared data on province-specific COVID-19 2020 mortality in two time periods, corresponding to the first wave (February 24-June 30, 2020) and to the second wave (September 1-December 31, 2020), using cubic spline regression.
resultsFor provinces with the lowest crude mortality rate in the first wave (February-June), i.e. < 22 cases/100,000/month, mortality in the second wave (September-December) was positively associated with mortality during the first wave. In provinces with mortality greater than 22/100,000/month during the first wave, higher mortality in the first wave was associated with a lower second wave mortality. Results were similar when the analysis was censored at October 2020, before the implementation of region-specific measures against the outbreak. Neither vaccination nor variant spread had any role during the study period.
conclusionsThese findings indicate that provinces with the most severe initial COVID-19 outbreaks, as assessed through mortality data, faced milder second waves.
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