Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34763078›Full record

ArticleJournal of cardiac failure2022

Ten-Year Risk-Prediction Equations for Incident Heart Failure Hospitalizations in Chronic Kidney Disease: Findings from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort Study and the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

Rupal Mehta, Hongyan Ning, Nisha Bansal, Jordana Cohen, Anand Srivastava, Mirela Dobre, Erin D Michos, Mahboob Rahman, Raymond Townsend, Stephen Seliger and 4 more

Open access · greenAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of cardiac failure, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
18citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
1.7field-weighted citation impact, top 15% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

18 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 21 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. The Intersection of Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction and CKD.Clinical journal of the American Society of Nephrology : CJASN · 2026
    Review
  4. Article
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  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Review
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  11. A simple score, CKMiScience · 2025
    Article
  12. Review
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Review
  16. Review
  17. Albuminuria: An Underappreciated Risk Factor for Cardiovascular Disease.Journal of the American Heart Association · 2024
    Review
  18. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors at 7 institutions in 1 country.

Rupal MehtaDivision of Nephrology and Hypertension, Department of Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, Illinois; Center for Translational Metabolism and Health, Institute for Public Health and Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, Illinois; Jesse Brown Veterans Administration Medical Center; Chicago, Illinois. Electronic address: rupal.mehta@northwestern.edu.
Hongyan NingDepartment of Preventive Medicine, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, Illinois.
Nisha BansalDivision of Nephrology, Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington.
Jordana CohenDivision of Nephrology, Department of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
Anand SrivastavaDivision of Nephrology and Hypertension, Department of Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, Illinois; Center for Translational Metabolism and Health, Institute for Public Health and Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, Illinois.
Mirela DobreDivision of Nephrology and Hypertension, Department of Medicine, University Hospitals Cleveland Medical Center, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio.
Erin D MichosDivision of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, John Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland.
Mahboob RahmanDivision of Nephrology and Hypertension, Department of Medicine, University Hospitals Cleveland Medical Center, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio.
Raymond TownsendDivision of Nephrology, Department of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
Stephen SeligerDivision of Nephrology, Department of Medicine, University of Maryland Medical Center, Baltimore, Maryland.
James P LashDivision of Nephrology, Department of Medicine, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, Illinois.
Tamara IsakovaDivision of Nephrology and Hypertension, Department of Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, Illinois; Center for Translational Metabolism and Health, Institute for Public Health and Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, Illinois.
Donald M Lloyd-JonesDepartment of Preventive Medicine, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, Illinois; Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, Illinois.
Sadiya S KhanDepartment of Preventive Medicine, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, Illinois; Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, Illinois.
Northwestern University · USUniversity Hospitals of Cleveland · USUniversity of Pennsylvania · USJohns Hopkins University · USUniversity of Illinois Chicago · USUniversity of Maryland, Baltimore · USUniversity of Washington · US

Funding

UCSF CLINICAL AND TRANSLATIONAL SCIENCE INSTITUTEUL1RR024131 · NCRR · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI JOHNSTON, S. CLAIBORNE · 2006 to 2011
$111.2M
Northwestern University Clinical and Translational Science Institute (NUCATS)UL1TR001422 · NCATS · NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY AT CHICAGO · PI D'AQUILA, RICHARD · 2015 to 2023
$56.8M
Scientific and Data Coordinating Center(SDCC) for the P*U01DK060990 · NIDDK · UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA · PI FELDMAN, HAROLD I · 2001 to 2017
$50.1M
Clinical and Translational Science Collaborative of ClevelandUL1TR000439 · NCATS · CASE WESTERN RESERVE UNIVERSITY · PI KONSTAN, MICHAEL W. · 2012 to 2016
$50.0M
Michigan Institute for Clinical and Health Research (MCHR)UL1TR000433 · NCATS · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · PI MASHOUR, GEORGE ALEXANDER · 2012 to 2016
$49.9M
Institutional Clinical and Translational Science AwardUL1TR000003 · NCATS · UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA · PI FITZGERALD, GARRET A · 2012 to 2015
$38.9M
Wake Forest Clinical and Translational Science AwardUL1TR001420 · NCATS · WAKE FOREST UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES · PI ARD, JAMY D, FOLEY, KRISTIE L · 2015 to 2023
$32.3M
Clinical and Translational Science AwardUL1TR000040 · NCATS · COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES · PI GINSBERG, HENRY N · 2012 to 2015
$26.2M
Tulane COBRE in Cardiometabolic Diseases Clinical Research CoreP20GM109036 · NIGMS · TULANE UNIVERSITY OF LOUISIANA · PI JING CHEN · 2016 to 2026
$25.3M
Continuation of the Coordinating Center for the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) StudyU24DK060990 · NIDDK · UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA · PI Amanda Hyre Anderson, Laura M Dember · 2018 to 2026
$21.5M
Zonulin Antibodies in Intestinal Permeabilitiy in IDDMM01RR016500 · NCRR · UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND BALTIMORE · PI OSWALD, LYNN M · 2002 to 2009
$20.2M
Study of the Care and Outcomes of REnal InsufficiencyU01DK060902 · NIDDK · KAISER FOUNDATION RESEARCH INSTITUTE · PI GO, ALAN S · 2001 to 2025
$19.5M
NCATS NIH HHS KL2 TR001424NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR000003NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR000040NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR000424NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR000433NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR000439NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR001420NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR001422NCRR NIH HHS M01 RR016500NCRR NIH HHS UL1 RR024131NCRR NIH HHS UL1 RR029879NHLBI NIH HHS 75N92020D00001NHLBI NIH HHS 75N92020D00002NHLBI NIH HHS 75N92020D00003NHLBI NIH HHS 75N92020D00004NHLBI NIH HHS 75N92020D00005NHLBI NIH HHS 75N92020D00006NHLBI NIH HHS 75N92020D00007NHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201500003CNHLBI NIH HHS HHSN268201500003INHLBI NIH HHS K23 HL150236NHLBI NIH HHS K24 HL150235NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL141846NIDDK NIH HHS K23 DK120811NIDDK NIH HHS P30 DK114857NIDDK NIH HHS R01 DK103612NIDDK NIH HHS R01 DK110087NIDDK NIH HHS U01 DK060902NIDDK NIH HHS U01 DK060963NIDDK NIH HHS U01 DK060980NIDDK NIH HHS U01 DK060984NIDDK NIH HHS U01 DK060990NIDDK NIH HHS U01 DK061021NIDDK NIH HHS U01 DK061022NIDDK NIH HHS U01 DK061028NIDDK NIH HHS U24 DK060990NIGMS NIH HHS P20 GM109036
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundHeart failure (HF) is a leading contributor to cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in the population with chronic kidney disease (CKD). HF risk prediction tools that use readily available clinical parameters to risk-stratify individuals with CKD are needed.

methodsWe included Black and White participants aged 30-79 years with CKD stages 2-4 who were enrolled in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) study and were without self-reported cardiovascular disease. We assessed model performance of the Pooled Cohort Equations to Prevent Heart Failure (PCP-HF) to predict incident hospitalizations due to HF and refit the PCP-HF in the population with CKD by using CRIC data-derived coefficients and survival from CRIC study participants in the CKD population (PCP-HF

resultsAmong 2328 CRIC Study participants, 340 incident HF hospitalizations occurred over a mean follow-up of 9.5 years. The PCP-HF equations did not perform well in most participants with CKD and had inadequate discrimination and insufficient calibration (C-statistic 0.64-0.71, Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino (GND) chi-square statistic P value < 0.05), with modest improvement and good calibration after being refit (PCP-HF

conclusionsRoutinely available clinical data that include UACR in patients with CKD can reliably identify individuals at risk of HF hospitalizations.

Indexed as

AtherosclerosisHeart FailureRenal Insufficiency, ChronicCohort StudiesFemaleGlomerular Filtration RateHospitalizationHumansMaleRisk Factorsalbuminuriachronic kidney diseaseheart failurekidney functionrisk prediction

Identifiers

PMID34763078
PMCPMC9186525
OpenAlexW3211908225

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.