Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34762857›Full record

SynthesisLancet (London, England)2021

How an outbreak became a pandemic: a chronological analysis of crucial junctures and international obligations in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Sudhvir Singh, Christine McNab, Rose McKeon Olson, Nellie Bristol, Cody Nolan, Elin Bergstrøm, Michael Bartos, Shunsuke Mabuchi, Raj Panjabi, Abraar Karan and 7 more

Abstract readSystematic Review
In one paragraph

Synthesis in Lancet (London, England), 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 64 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
64citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

64 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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4 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

17 authors.

Sudhvir SinghThe Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response, Geneva, Switzerland; Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand. Electronic address: singhsu@ipppr.org.
Christine McNabThe Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response, Geneva, Switzerland.
Rose McKeon OlsonBrigham and Women's Hospital, Department of Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
Nellie BristolThe Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response, Geneva, Switzerland.
Cody NolanBrigham and Women's Hospital, Department of Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
Elin BergstrømThe Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response, Geneva, Switzerland.
Michael BartosThe Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response, Geneva, Switzerland; School of Sociology, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia.
Shunsuke MabuchiThe Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response, Geneva, Switzerland.
Raj PanjabiThe Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response, Geneva, Switzerland.
Abraar KaranBrigham and Women's Hospital, Department of Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
Salma M AbdallaThe Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response, Geneva, Switzerland; Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
Mathias BonkThe Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response, Geneva, Switzerland.
Margaret JamiesonInstitute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.
George K WernerThe Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response, Geneva, Switzerland.
Anders NordströmThe Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response, Geneva, Switzerland.
Helena Legido-QuigleyThe Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response, Geneva, Switzerland; London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, Singapore.
Alexandra PhelanThe Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response, Geneva, Switzerland; Center for Global Health Science & Security, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Understanding the spread of SARS-CoV-2, how and when evidence emerged, and the timing of local, national, regional, and global responses is essential to establish how an outbreak became a pandemic and to prepare for future health threats. With that aim, the Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response has developed a chronology of events, actions, and recommendations, from December, 2019, when the first cases of COVID-19 were identified in China, to the end of March, 2020, by which time the outbreak had spread extensively worldwide and had been characterised as a pandemic. Datapoints are based on two literature reviews, WHO documents and correspondence, submissions to the Panel, and an expert verification process. The retrospective analysis of the chronology shows a dedicated initial response by WHO and some national governments, but also aspects of the response that could have been quicker, including outbreak notifications under the International Health Regulations (IHR), presumption and confirmation of human-to-human transmission of SARS-CoV-2, declaration of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, and, most importantly, the public health response of many national governments. The chronology also shows that some countries, largely those with previous experience with similar outbreaks, reacted quickly, even ahead of WHO alerts, and were more successful in initially containing the virus. Mapping actions against IHR obligations, the chronology shows where efficiency and accountability could be improved at local, national, and international levels to more quickly alert and contain health threats in the future. In particular, these improvements include necessary reforms to international law and governance for pandemic preparedness and response, including the IHR and a potential framework convention on pandemic preparedness and response.

Indexed as

PandemicsAnimalsChinaCOVID-19Disease OutbreaksGlobal HealthHumansInformation DisseminationInternational CooperationInternational Health RegulationsRisk AssessmentSARS-CoV-2Time FactorsWorld Health OrganizationZoonoses

Identifiers

PMID34762857
PMCPMC8575464

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.