ArticleRoyal Society open science2021
Ascertaining the initiation of epidemic resurgences: an application to the COVID-19 second surges in Europe and the Northeast United States.
Article in Royal Society open science, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Dynamics-informed deconvolutional neural networks for super-resolution identification of regime changes in epidemiological time series.Science advances · 2023Article
- A large-scale machine learning study of sociodemographic factors contributing to COVID-19 severity.Frontiers in big data · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Assessing a potential resurgence of an epidemic outbreak with certainty is as important as it is challenging. The low number of infectious individuals after a long regression, and the randomness associated with it, makes it difficult to ascertain whether the infectious population is growing or just fluctuating. We have developed an approach to compute confidence intervals for the switching time from decay to growth and to compute the corresponding multiple-location aggregated quantities over a region to increase the precision of the determination. We estimated the aggregate prevalence over time for Europe and the northeast United States to characterize the COVID-19 second surge in these regions during year 2020. We find a starting date as early as 3 July (95% confidence interval (CI): 1-6 July) for Europe and 19 August (95% CI: 16-23 August) for the northeast United States; subsequent infectious populations that, as of 31 December, have always increased or remained stagnant; and the resurgences being the collective effect of each overall region with no location, either country or state, dominating the regional dynamics by itself.
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