ArticleBMC medicine2021
Predicted norovirus resurgence in 2021-2022 due to the relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions associated with COVID-19 restrictions in England: a mathematical modeling study.
Article in BMC medicine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
18 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 35 citations in OpenAlex.
- Disease burden of norovirus-associated diarrhea among children under 5 years old in China: a meta-analysis.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Pooled it
- A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, dose-escalating phase I trial to evaluate safety and immunogenicity of a plant-produced, bivalent, recombinant norovirus-like particle vaccine.Frontiers in immunology · 2022Trial
- Current Perspectives and Future Directions in the Immunogenicity Landscape of Norovirus Vaccines.Journal of microbiology and biotechnology · 2025Review
- Numerical solutions for norovirus epidemic spread: implications for public health control.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Review
- An application of nowcasting methods: Cases of norovirus during the winter 2023/2024 in England.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- An unusual diarrheal outbreak in the community in Eastern Thailand caused by Norovirus GII.3[P25].Virology journal · 2024Article
- Inhibition, transition, and surge: dynamic evolution of pediatric respiratory pathogen trends amid COVID-19 pandemic policy adjustments.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Norovirus Epidemiology and Genotype Circulation during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Brazil, 2019-2022.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Article
- Impact of pandemics and disruptions to vaccination on infectious diseases epidemiology past and present.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2023Review
- Rotavirus A during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Brazil, 2020-2022: Emergence of G6P[8] Genotype.Viruses · 2023Article
- Review
- Norovirus attribution study: Detection of norovirus from the commercial food preparation environment in outbreak and non-outbreak premises.Journal of applied microbiology · 2022Article
- Article
- Noro- and rotavirus detections in children during COVID-19 pandemic-A nationwide register study in Finland.Acta paediatrica (Oslo, Norway : 1992) · 2022Article
- A process mining- deep learning approach to predict survival in a cohort of hospitalized COVID-19 patients.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2022Article
- Review
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Authors and funding
14 authors at 5 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundTo reduce the coronavirus disease burden in England, along with many other countries, the government implemented a package of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that have also impacted other transmissible infectious diseases such as norovirus. It is unclear what future norovirus disease incidence is likely to look like upon lifting these restrictions.
methodsHere we use a mathematical model of norovirus fitted to community incidence data in England to project forward expected incidence based on contact surveys that have been collected throughout 2020-2021.
resultsWe report that susceptibility to norovirus infection has likely increased between March 2020 and mid-2021. Depending upon assumptions of future contact patterns incidence of norovirus that is similar to pre-pandemic levels or an increase beyond what has been previously reported is likely to occur once restrictions are lifted. Should adult contact patterns return to 80% of pre-pandemic levels, the incidence of norovirus will be similar to previous years. If contact patterns return to pre-pandemic levels, there is a potential for the expected annual incidence to be up to 2-fold larger than in a typical year. The age-specific incidence is similar across all ages.
conclusionsContinued national surveillance for endemic diseases such as norovirus will be essential after NPIs are lifted to allow healthcare services to adequately prepare for a potential increase in cases and hospital pressures beyond what is typically experienced.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.