ArticleEuropean journal of public health2021
Early warning indicators of COVID-19 burden for a prosilient European pandemic response.
Article in European journal of public health, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Research gaps and priorities for quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA).Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2024Article
- A Low-Cost Early Warning Method for Infectious Diseases with Asymptomatic Carriers.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThe European Union has been criticized for responding to the COVID-19 pandemic in a reactive, rather than prosilient manner. For the EU bloc to be prosilient, it needs to have the right early warning indicators to allow short-term healthcare system preparedness and agile planning of the public health response.
methodThe association of COVID-19 disease burden, as measured by mortality (COVID-19 and all-cause), hospital and ICU occupancy, with incidence rate (IR), total positivity rate (TPR) and adjusted TPR as proposed by Vong and Kakkar, was investigated using Poisson regression analysis. This was carried out using both real-time data and time lags of up to 8 weeks to identify potential for early warning of spikes in disease burden. ECDC weekly figures for these indicators were used, and the analysis was repeated for the subset of data after Week 42 of 2020, when the EU Council introduced minimum COVID-19 testing rates.
resultsTPR and IR were noted to be the most predictive of COVID-19 disease burden whilst adjusted TPR applied on weekly data was not associated. TPR behaved better at predicting all-cause mortality in both analyses. The TPR and IR were both best associated with hospital and ICU occupancy and COVID-19 mortality with a short time lag (2-3 weeks in the case of TPR with hospital occupancy and COVID-19 mortality).
conclusionsMonitoring TPR can provide a 2-3-week warning of a spike in hospital occupancy and COVID-19 mortality. This time, if well utilized, could help health systems save countless lives by mobilising resources.
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