Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34749673›Full record

Observational studyBMC emergency medicine2021

Risk prediction of biomarkers for early multiple organ dysfunction in critically ill patients.

Shigeto Ishikawa, Yuto Teshima, Hiroki Otsubo, Takashi Shimazui, Taka-Aki Nakada, Osamu Takasu, Kenichi Matsuda, Junichi Sasaki, Masakazu Nabeta, Takeshi Moriguchi and 3 more

Open access · goldAbstract readMulticenter StudyObservational Study
In one paragraph

Observational study in BMC emergency medicine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
16citing papers in PubMed
2.3field-weighted citation impact, top 11% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

16 citing papers in PubMed, 23 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Observational
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  3. [Association of platelets with multiple organic failure in septic patients].Revista medica del Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors at 5 institutions in 1 country.

Shigeto IshikawaDepartment of Emergency Medicine, University of Occupational and Environmental Health, 1-1 Iseigaoka, Yahata-nishi, Kitakyushu, 807-8555, Japan. shgtishkw@med.uoeh-u.ac.jp.
Yuto TeshimaDepartment of Emergency Medicine, University of Occupational and Environmental Health, 1-1 Iseigaoka, Yahata-nishi, Kitakyushu, 807-8555, Japan.
Hiroki OtsuboDepartment of Emergency Medicine, University of Occupational and Environmental Health, 1-1 Iseigaoka, Yahata-nishi, Kitakyushu, 807-8555, Japan.
Takashi ShimazuiDepartment of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Chiba University Graduate School of Medicine, Chiba, Japan.
Taka-Aki NakadaDepartment of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Chiba University Graduate School of Medicine, Chiba, Japan.
Osamu TakasuDepartment of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Kurume University School of Medicine, Kurume, Japan.
Kenichi MatsudaDepartment of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, University of Yamanashi, Faculty of Medicine, Yamanashi, Japan.
Junichi SasakiDepartment of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Keio University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan.
Masakazu NabetaDepartment of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Kurume University School of Medicine, Kurume, Japan.
Takeshi MoriguchiDepartment of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, University of Yamanashi, Faculty of Medicine, Yamanashi, Japan.
Takayuki ShibusawaDepartment of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Keio University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan.
Toshihiko MayumiDepartment of Emergency Medicine, University of Occupational and Environmental Health, 1-1 Iseigaoka, Yahata-nishi, Kitakyushu, 807-8555, Japan.
Shigeto OdaDepartment of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Chiba University Graduate School of Medicine, Chiba, Japan.
University of Occupational and Environmental Health Japan · JPChiba University · JPKeio University · JPKurume University · JPUniversity of Yamanashi · JP

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundShock and organ damage occur in critically ill patients in the emergency department because of biological responses to invasion, and cytokines play an important role in their development. It is important to predict early multiple organ dysfunction (MOD) because it is useful in predicting patient outcomes and selecting treatment strategies. This study examined the accuracy of biomarkers, including interleukin (IL)-6, in predicting early MOD in critically ill patients compared with that of quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA).

methodsThis was a multicenter observational sub-study. Five universities from 2016 to 2018. Data of adult patients with systemic inflammatory response syndrome who presented to the emergency department or were admitted to the intensive care unit were prospectively evaluated. qSOFA score and each biomarker (IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, tumor necrosis factor-α, C-reactive protein, and procalcitonin [PCT]) level were assessed on Days 0, 1, and 2. The primary outcome was set as MOD on Day 2, and the area under the curve (AUC) was analyzed to evaluate qSOFA scores and biomarker levels.

resultsOf 199 patients, 38 were excluded and 161 were included. Patients with MOD on Day 2 had significantly higher qSOFA, SOFA, and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II scores and a trend toward worse prognosis, including mortality. The AUC for qSOFA score (Day 0) that predicted MOD (Day 2) was 0.728 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.651-0.794). IL-6 (Day 1) showed the highest AUC among all biomarkers (0.790 [95% CI: 0.711-852]). The combination of qSOFA (Day 0) and IL-6 (Day 1) showed improved prediction accuracy (0.842 [95% CI: 0.771-0.893]). The combination model using qSOFA (Day 1) and IL-6 (Day 1) also showed a higher AUC (0.868 [95% CI: 0.799-0.915]). The combination model of IL-8 and PCT also showed a significant improvement in AUC.

conclusionsThe addition of IL-6, IL-8 and PCT to qSOFA scores improved the accuracy of early MOD prediction.

Indexed as

Critical IllnessSepsisAdultBiomarkersHospital MortalityHumansIntensive Care UnitsMultiple Organ FailureOrgan Dysfunction ScoresPrognosisRetrospective StudiesROC CurveBiomarkersCritically illInterleukinMultiple organ dysfunctionPredictive markerqSOFA

Identifiers

PMID34749673
PMCPMC8573766
OpenAlexW3211634666

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.