Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34749011›Full record

ArticleInternational journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases2022

Country differences in transmissibility, age distribution and case-fatality of SARS-CoV-2: a global ecological analysis.

Caroline Favas, Prudence Jarrett, Ruwan Ratnayake, Oliver J Watson, Francesco Checchi

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
12citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

12 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Caroline FavasFaculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel St, Bloomsbury, London, WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom. Electronic address: caroline.favas@lshtm.ac.uk.
Prudence JarrettFaculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel St, Bloomsbury, London, WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom.
Ruwan RatnayakeFaculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel St, Bloomsbury, London, WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom.
Oliver J WatsonDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
Francesco ChecchiFaculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel St, Bloomsbury, London, WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom.

Funding

Medical Research Council MC_PC_19012Medical Research Council MR/R015600/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Objectives The first COVID-19 pandemic waves in many low-income countries appeared milder than initially forecasted. We conducted a country-level ecological study to describe patterns in key SARS-CoV-2 outcomes by country and region and explore associations with potential explanatory factors, including population age structure and prior exposure to endemic parasitic infections. Methods We collected publicly available data and compared them using standardisation techniques. We then explored the association between exposures and outcomes using random forest and linear regression. We adjusted for potential confounders and plausible effect modifications. Results While mean time-varying reproduction number was highest in the European and Americas regions, median age of death was lower in the Africa region, with a broadly similar case-fatality ratio. Population age was strongly associated with mean (β=0.01, 95% CI, 0.005, 0.011) and median age of cases (β=-0.40, 95% CI, -0.53, -0.26) and deaths (β= 0.40, 95% CI, 0.17, 0.62). Conclusions Population age seems an important country-level factor explaining both transmissibility and age distribution of observed cases and deaths. Endemic infections seem unlikely, from this analysis, to be key drivers of the variation in observed epidemic trends. Our study was limited by the availability of outcome data and its causally uncertain ecological design.

Indexed as

COVID-19SARS-CoV-2Age DistributionAmericasHumansPandemicsUnited Statesage structureCoronavirusCOVID-19endemic infectionsparasitestransmissibility

Identifiers

PMID34749011
PMCPMC8571103

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.