ArticleeLife2021
Stochastic social behavior coupled to COVID-19 dynamics leads to waves, plateaus, and an endemic state.
Article in eLife, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.
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Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed, 47 citations in OpenAlex.
- COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness and Barriers to Vaccination: Comparing Perceptions Based on Vaccination Status.Journal of racial and ethnic health disparities · 2026Article
- Existence and stability of equilibria in infectious disease dynamics with behavioral feedback.Physical review. E · 2025Article
- Heterogeneous risk tolerance, in-groups, and epidemic waves.Frontiers in applied mathematics and statistics · 2024Article
- Stabilizing the return to normal behavior in an epidemic.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2023Article
- Physical distancing versus testing with self-isolation for controlling an emerging epidemic.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Epidemic modeling with heterogeneity and social diffusion.Journal of mathematical biology · 2023Article
- A model of behavioural response to risk accurately predicts the statistical distribution of COVID-19 infection and reproduction numbers.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Communicating COVID-19 exposure risk with an interactive website counteracts risk misestimation.PloS one · 2023Article
- Host age structure reshapes parasite symbiosis: collaboration begets pathogens, competition begets virulent mutualists.Biology direct · 2022Article
- Article
- Controlling Multiple COVID-19 Epidemic Waves: An Insight from a Multi-scale Model Linking the Behaviour Change Dynamics to the Disease Transmission Dynamics.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2022Article
- Comparison of the 2021 COVID-19 roadmap projections against public health data in England.Nature communications · 2022Article
- Continuing inequalities in COVID-19 mortality in England and Wales, and the changing importance of regional, over local, deprivation.Health & place · 2022Article
- Mitigation of SARS-CoV-2 transmission at a large public university.Nature communications · 2022Article
- Metastable states in plateaus and multi-wave epidemic dynamics of Covid-19 spreading in Italy.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Cognitive Barriers to COVID-19 Vaccine Uptake Among Older Adults.Frontiers in medicine · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
It is well recognized that population heterogeneity plays an important role in the spread of epidemics. While individual variations in social activity are often assumed to be persistent, that is, constant in time, here we discuss the consequences of dynamic heterogeneity. By integrating the stochastic dynamics of social activity into traditional epidemiological models, we demonstrate the emergence of a new long timescale governing the epidemic, in broad agreement with empirical data. Our stochastic social activity model captures multiple features of real-life epidemics such as COVID-19, including prolonged plateaus and multiple waves, which are transiently suppressed due to the dynamic nature of social activity. The existence of a long timescale due to the interplay between epidemic and social dynamics provides a unifying picture of how a fast-paced epidemic typically will transition to an endemic state.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.