ArticleAlcoholism, clinical and experimental research2021
Forecasting future prevalence and gender differences in binge drinking among young adults through 2040.
Article in Alcoholism, clinical and experimental research, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 12 citations in OpenAlex.
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- Risk and protective factors associated with mental health status in an Italian sample of students during the fourth wave of COVID-19 pandemic.Child and adolescent psychiatry and mental health · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
7 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundBinge drinking among adolescents and young adults has changed over time, but patterns differ by age and gender. Identifying high-risk groups to target future efforts at reducing drinking in this population remains a public health priority. Forecasting methods can provide a better understanding of variation and determinants of future binge drinking prevalence.
methodsWe implemented regression-based forecasting models to estimate the prevalence and gender differences in binge drinking among cohort groups of U.S. young adults, ages 18, 23-24, and 29-30 through 2040. Forecasting models were adjusted for covariates accounting for changes in demographic, Big-5 social roles (e.g., residential independence), and drinking norms and related substance use, to understand the drivers of forecasted binge drinking estimates.
resultsFrom the last observed cohort group (years varied by age) through 2040, unadjusted binge drinking prevalence was forecasted to decrease from 26% (95% CI: 20, 33%) (2011-15) to 11% (95% CI: 4, 27%) at age 18, decrease from 38% (95% CI: 30, 45%) (2006-2010) to 34% (95% CI: 18, 55%) at ages 23/24, and increase from 32% (95% CI: 25, 40%) (2001-2005) to 35% (95% CI: 16, 59%) at ages 29/30. Gender-stratified forecasts show a continuation in the narrowing of binge drinking prevalence between young men and women, though the magnitude of narrowing differs by age. Estimated trends were partially explained by changing norms regarding drinking and other substance use, though these indirect effects explained less of the total trend as age increased.
conclusionsUnderstanding how covariates influence binge drinking trends can guide public health policies to leverage the most important determinants of future binge drinking to reduce the harm caused by binge drinking from adolescence to adulthood.
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