ArticleTobacco control2023
Healthy People Countdown 2030: reaching 5% cigarette smoking prevalence among US adults through state cigarette excise tax increases.
Article in Tobacco control, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- Support for banning sale of smoked tobacco products among adults who smoke: findings from the International Tobacco Control Four Country Smoking and Vaping Surveys (2018-2022).Tobacco control · 2025Article
- Assessing sustainability effects of tobacco use and control in global supply chains.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Evaluations of Compliance With California's First Tobacco Sales Bans and Tobacco Marketing in Restricted and Cross-Border Stores.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
1 author.
Funding
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Abstract
objectiveThe Healthy People 2030 goal is to reduce US current adult cigarette smoking prevalence to 5% by 2030. The objective of this report is to investigate if this goal is achievable using state cigarette excise tax increases.
methodsState-specific linear trends in smoking prevalence over 2011-2019 were determined using fractional logit regression and compared with the desired linear trends for achieving 5% smoking prevalence by 2030 in individual states and the District of Columbia (DC). The gaps between price-adjusted and desired trends were used in a simulation model for identifying state-specific systematic annual increases in state cigarette excise tax rates based on state-specific price elasticity of smoking prevalence, maintaining the status quo in other non-tax tobacco control measures.
resultsThe price-adjusted trends in smoking prevalence observed over 2011-2019 exceed the desired trends for achieving 5% smoking prevalence target by 2030 in only five states (eg, Washington, Utah, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Maryland) and the DC. It suggests that majority of states and USA overall will miss the target smoking prevalence at the current rate of reduction in smoking. 45 states would need systematic annual increases in cigarette excise tax rate in a range of $0.02-$1.37 per pack over 2022-2030 to meet the target.
conclusionsThe feasibility of reaching the Healthy People 2030 goal would critically depend on the acceleration of progress in tobacco control. Tax increases tailored to the needs of individual states combined with scaled-up non-tax tobacco control policy interventions can help achieve the desired progress.
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