Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34739164›Full record

Observational studyInternational journal of methods in psychiatric research2022

Evaluating the heterogeneous effect of a modifiable risk factor on suicide: The case of vitamin D deficiency.

Jose R Zubizarreta, John C Umhau, Patricia A Deuster, Lisa A Brenner, Andrew J King, Maria V Petukhova, Nancy A Sampson, Boris Tizenberg, Sanjaya K Upadhyaya, Jill A RachBeisel and 3 more

Open access · goldAbstract readObservational Study
In one paragraph

Observational study in International journal of methods in psychiatric research, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
4citing papers in PubMed
1.2field-weighted citation impact, top 19% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

4 citing papers in PubMed, 6 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Observational
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors at 5 institutions in 2 countries.

Jose R ZubizarretaDepartment of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
John C UmhauAlcohol Recovery Medicine, Potomac, Maryland, USA.
Patricia A DeusterConsortium for Health and Military Performance, Department of Military & Emergency Medicine, F. Edward Hébert School of Medicine, Uniformed Services University, Bethesda, Maryland, USA.
Lisa A BrennerUniversity of Colorado Anschutz School of Medicine, Aurora, Colorado, USA.
Andrew J KingDepartment of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
Maria V PetukhovaDepartment of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
Nancy A SampsonDepartment of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
Boris TizenbergMood and Anxiety Program, Department of Psychiatry, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
Sanjaya K UpadhyayaMood and Anxiety Program, Department of Psychiatry, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
Jill A RachBeiselDepartment of Psychiatry, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
Elizabeth A StreetenGenetics and Personalized Medicine Clinic, Division of Endocrinology, Diabetes and Nutrition, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
Ronald C KesslerDepartment of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-4831-2305
Teodor T PostolacheVA Rocky Mountain Mental Illness Research Education and Clinical Center (MIRECC), Aurora, Colorado, USA.
Harvard University · USUniversity of Maryland, Baltimore · USDepartment of Alcohol, Drug, and Mental Health Services · USMental Illness Research, Education and Clinical Centers · USUniformed Services University of the Health Sciences · US

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesTo illustrate the use of machine learning methods to search for heterogeneous effects of a target modifiable risk factor on suicide in observational studies. The illustration focuses on secondary analysis of a matched case-control study of vitamin D deficiency predicting subsequent suicide.

methodsWe describe a variety of machine learning methods to search for prescriptive predictors; that is, predictors of significant variation in the association between a target risk factor and subsequent suicide. In each case, the purpose is to evaluate the potential value of selective intervention on the target risk factor to prevent the outcome based on the provisional assumption that the target risk factor is causal. The approaches illustrated include risk modeling based on the super learner ensemble machine learning method, Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (Lasso) penalized regression, and the causal forest algorithm.

resultsThe logic of estimating heterogeneous intervention effects is exposited along with the illustration of some widely used methods for implementing this logic.

conclusionsIn addition to describing best practices in using the machine learning methods considered here, we close with a discussion of broader design and analysis issues in planning an observational study to investigate heterogeneous effects of a modifiable risk factor.

Indexed as

Suicide PreventionVitamin D DeficiencyCase-Control StudiesHumansMachine LearningRisk Factorscausal forest algorithmheterogeneity of treatment effects (HTE)lasso penalized regressionprecision medicineprescriptive predictorssuicidesuper learner

Identifiers

PMID34739164
PMCPMC8886287
OpenAlexW3211122040

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.