ArticleRoyal Society open science2021
Modelling the impact of age-stratified public health measures on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Canada.
Article in Royal Society open science, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 11 citations in OpenAlex.
- Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- Impact of unequal testing on vaccine effectiveness estimates across two study designs: a simulation study.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Mathematical modelling for pandemic preparedness in Canada: Learning from COVID-19.Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada · 2024Article
- Canada's provincial COVID-19 pandemic modelling efforts: A review of mathematical models and their impacts on the responses.Canadian journal of public health = Revue canadienne de sante publique · 2024Review
- A methodology for estimating SARS-CoV-2 importation risk by air travel into Canada between July and November 2021.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Counterfactuals of effects of vaccination and public health measures on COVID-19 cases in Canada: What could have happened?Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada · 2022Article
- Studying the mixed transmission in a community with age heterogeneity: COVID-19 as a case study.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2022Article
- Modelling the impact of age-stratified public health measures on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Canada.Royal Society open science · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
8 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Public health measures applied exclusively within vulnerable populations have been suggested as an alternative to community-wide interventions to mitigate SARS-CoV-2 transmission. With the population demography and healthcare capacity of Canada as an example, a stochastic age-stratified agent-based model was used to explore the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic under three intervention scenarios (infection-preventing vaccination, illness-preventing vaccination and shielding) in individuals above three age thresholds (greater than or equal to 45, 55 and 65 years) while lifting shutdowns and physical distancing in the community. Compared with a scenario with sustained community-wide measures, all age-stratified intervention scenarios resulted in a substantial epidemic resurgence, with hospital and ICU bed usage exceeding healthcare capacities even at the lowest age threshold. Individuals under the age threshold were severely impacted by the implementation of all age-stratified interventions, with large numbers of avoidable deaths. Among all explored scenarios, shielding older individuals led to the most detrimental outcomes (hospitalizations, ICU admissions and mortality) for all ages, including the targeted population. This study suggests that, in the absence of community-wide measures, implementing interventions exclusively within vulnerable age groups could result in unmanageable levels of infections, with serious outcomes within the population. Caution is therefore warranted regarding early relaxation of community-wide restrictions.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.