Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34737270›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2021

Explainable machine learning model for predicting spontaneous bacterial peritonitis in cirrhotic patients with ascites.

Yingying Hu, Ruijia Chen, Haibing Gao, Haitao Lin, Jinye Wang, Xiaowei Wang, Jingfeng Liu, Yongyi Zeng

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
8citing papers in PubMed
0.6field-weighted citation impact, top 32% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

8 citing papers in PubMed, 14 citations in OpenAlex.

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  8. An Improved Diagnostic of theDiagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Yingying Hu *Department of Pharmacy, Mengchao Hepatobiliary Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, 350025, China.
Ruijia Chen *Department of Pharmacy, Mengchao Hepatobiliary Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, 350025, China.
Haibing Gao *Department of Infection and Liver Diseases, Mengchao Hepatobiliary Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, 350025, China.
Haitao LinThe Big Data Institute of Southeast Hepatobiliary Health Information, Mengchao Hepatobiliary Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, 350025, China.
Jinye WangDepartment of Pharmacy, Mengchao Hepatobiliary Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, 350025, China.
Xiaowei WangThe Big Data Institute of Southeast Hepatobiliary Health Information, Mengchao Hepatobiliary Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, 350025, China.
Jingfeng LiuDepartment of Hepatopancreatobiliary Surgery, Mengchao Hepatobiliary Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, 350025, China. drjingfeng@126.com.
Yongyi ZengDepartment of Hepatopancreatobiliary Surgery, Mengchao Hepatobiliary Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, 350025, China. lamp197311@126.com.
Fujian Medical University · CNMengchao Hepatobiliary Hospital · CN

Funding

Fujian Medical University Qihang Project 2019QH1301Open Project of Fujian Key Laboratory of Natural Pharmacology in 2019 FJNMP-201905
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is a life-threatening complication in patients with cirrhosis. We aimed to develop an explainable machine learning model to achieve the early prediction and outcome interpretation of SBP. We used CatBoost algorithm to construct MODEL-1 with 46 variables. After dimensionality reduction, we constructed MODEL-2. We calculated and compared the sensitivity and negative predictive value (NPV) of MODEL-1 and MODEL-2. Finally, we used the SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) method to provide insights into the model's outcome or prediction. MODEL-2 (AUROC: 0.822; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.783-0.856), liked MODEL-1 (AUROC: 0.822; 95% CI 0.784-0.856), could well predict the risk of SBP in cirrhotic ascites patients. The 6 most influential predictive variables were total protein, C-reactive protein, prothrombin activity, cholinesterase, lymphocyte ratio and apolipoprotein A1. For binary classifier, the sensitivity and NPV of MODEL-1 were 0.894 and 0.885, respectively, while for MODEL-2 they were 0.927 and 0.904, respectively. We applied CatBoost algorithm to establish a practical and explainable prediction model for risk of SBP in cirrhotic patients with ascites. We also identified 6 important variables closely related to the occurrence of SBP.

Indexed as

AdultAscitesBacterial InfectionsC-Reactive ProteinFemaleFibrosisForecastingHumansLiver CirrhosisMachine LearningMaleMiddle AgedModels, TheoreticalPeritonitisPredictive Value of TestsC-Reactive Protein

Identifiers

PMID34737270
PMCPMC8569162
OpenAlexW3208574002

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.